[hattend]

How did this big of a lead translate into seats won in previous off-year elections? 1994 for example.

[Tennessean4Bush]

How did this big of a lead translate into seats won in previous off-year elections? 1994 for example.

Not entirely sure. Ras was not polling then, so there is not a one-to-one correlation. Gallup was, and I believe showed a modest 3-5pt lead for the GOP in 1994. Gallup is showing almost twice that now.

[Tennessean4Bush]

The most important thing, imho, is often overlooked. With the GOP base energized by these polls and anxious to send a message, not only do they pick up lots of seats in the US House and some in the Senate, but they benefit all the way down the ticket to the state legislative senate and house races. We may see 38 GOP Governors and many legislative bodies flipped to GOP. This is supremely important this year especially since these bodies will be redrawing seat boundaries in response to the 2010 census. I know in TN, this will mean not only the US Congressional delegation will be more conservative in future elections, but all the state house and senate districts may be redrawn more favorably to the GOP.

[GonzoGOP]

How did this big of a lead translate into seats won in previous off-year elections? 1994 for example.

I don't have numbers for Ras in 1994 (not even sure he did one back then). On the week before the election the Dems and the GOP were dead even. In mid August the Dems were up. And the result was a pickup of 54 seats.

Remember if the polls perfectly represented the republic a dead even poll would mean a dead even congress. That would require a 40 seat GOP pickup. Since there is not a single case where the GOP has not beaten what was expected of them in the generic ballot you have to think 50+ seat pickup if the GOP can simply break even. There are no precedents for what a +9 GOP lead would mean as they have never had a lead that big in any prior election that I know of.

[Jacquerie]

IIRC from former Senator Santorum hosting a recent Bill Bennett Show, the numbers were only +3 in 1994.

The reason even small positives turn into big pubbie wins is the overwhelming vote for rats by minorities in their special, Voting Rights Act, carved out districts like Charlie Rangel’s.

That means outside of the carve outs, the actual number intending to vote GOP is larger than nation wide polling would indicate.

[Uncledave]

Some quotes in here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/22/AR2010082202859.html

1) In an August 1994 Washington Post-ABC News poll, 49 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Democrat while 42 percent said they would back the Republican. Last month, 47 percent said they would support the Republican while 46 percent chose the Democrat.

2) The results were strikingly similar in several other national surveys. In an August 1994 Gallup poll, 46 percent said they would vote for the Democrat and an equal 46 percent said they would support the Republican. The most recent Gallup data give Republicans an edge of 50 percent to 43 percent over Democrats