Iraq's Future- A Proxy War Between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

With the official end of U.S. combat operations in Iraq, what bodes for Iraq's future in terms of its relations to other nations in the Middle East? One useful way to examine this question is through the lens of what Daniel Pipes describes as the present "Middle Eastern Cold War."

This new Cold War represents the current ideological division in the Middle East between the "revolutionary bloc," led chiefly by Iran, Syria, and more recently Turkey, and the "status-quo bloc," led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt. While most Sunni Arab states align themselves with the "status-quo bloc," there are notable exceptions in that Qatar and Oman back the "revolutionary bloc," while Libya simply sits on the sidelines.

I did a little research for a friend earlier today that is on the cusp of understanding Islamic infighting. Basically, it is a breakdown of religious factions, by country, in the ME. Here is my exact text:

Turkey: No official state religion, 99% Muslim (85%-90% Sunni, 10%-15% Alevi/Shia)

Syria: 87% Muslim(74% Sunni, 13% Shia (some of these are “Twelvers”. These guys are scary)), 10% Christian

Iraq: +95% Muslim (65% Shia, 35% Sunni), 3% Christian

Jordan: Official state religion is Islam, 92% Muslim (Largely Sunni), 7% Christian, 1% Other

Lebanon: 56% Muslim (5% Druze (similar to Shi’a), 28% Sunni, 28% Shi’a), 39% Christian

Israel: 16% Muslim (Shi’a mainly), 2% Christian

Saudi Arabia: Official religion is Islam, Freedom of religion is prohibited (law requires citizens to be Muslim), 90% Muslim, 76% Sunni, 13.5% Shi’a (8% Twelver, 5.5% Zaydis), 3.5% Christian

Yemen: Predominately Muslim, 52% Sunni, 46% Shi’a

Oman: 75% Ibadhi, 17% Sunni, 8% Shi’a

U.A.E.: 76% Muslim (85% Sunni, 15% Shi’a), 9% Christian, 15% Other

Iran: Official state religion is “Twelver” (check these guys out. SCARY), 89% Shia (Twelver), 9% Sunni, 2% Other. I might also add that the current President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is a Twelver

Afghanistan: +99% Muslim (80% Sunni, 19% Shi’a, 1% other)

Pakistan: 96% Islam (majority Sunni, 10%-30% Shi’a) 1.9% Hindu, 1.6% Christian

Sunni and Shi'a don't get along historically. Those percentages alone should give you an idea how things will come together once mass conflict erupts.

Very true and with Iran now or soon having an upgrade in military weaponary the Saudi’s are peeing in their pants and secretly hoping Isarael strikes. The US and Obama will more than likely support Israel not for the sake of Israel but to protect the Saudis. The Saudi fear is that sharing a border with A’jad and the twelvers will eventually lead to a) Iran raining military weapons on them as well as Israel or b) another war similar to the Iran/Irag war which the Saudis are too pampered, soft and spoiled to win without US help.

The Israel-Fakestinian conflict is just a good smoke screen diverting attention away from the true potential war in the region. Shi’ite vs. Sunni.

I had a college acquaintenance whose family fled Iran when the Shah fell and his view of the Saudi’s and Arabs as a whole was in line with A’jad. They call Arabs locusts. Because Iran is not only Shi’te infested but also Persian, not Arab.

Add to this the belief that Pakistan is a failed state along the lines of Yugoslavia, except it has nuclear weapons and the Islamo-cultists may wipe out 20% of their own people and bring the rest of the world into an ideological conflict.

Interesting times we live in.

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