you have to remember that 1994 was a SURPRISE, no one predicted the GOP was going to have a wave like that, and compare that to this year where EVERYONE know the tsunami is coming for the democrats.
GOP Senate thoughts, based mainly on
Election Projection and
Rel Clear Politics but consistent with other sources:
At least seven certain or fairly likely gains:
ND: Hoeven will pick up the open Dem seat. Easily.
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln is going down as she so richly deserves.
Indiana: Coates will pick up the open seat.
PA: Toomey over Sestak . . . probably. Donations would help! Working the polls especially to stop the expected fraud and intimidation, getting out the vote, or just pushing friends and neighbors to go vote are also good ideas if you live there or in an adjacent state.
Colorado: Buck leads over incumbent Bennet, barely.
Delaware: Castle leads for the open seat, barely.
Illinois: Kirk leads for the open seat, barely.
Five races that are well worth following or working on:
Washington: Rossi/Murray a toss up. Donations would help! Working the polls, get out the vote, or just pushing friends and neighbors to go vote are also good ideas if you live there.
California: Fiorina/Boxer close but leaning the wrong way. Very large donations might help. Working the polls, get out the vote, or just pushing friends and neighbors to go vote are also good ideas if you live there.
Nevada: Angle/Reid close but leaning the wrong way. Donations would help! Working the polls, get out the vote, or just pushing friends and neighbors to go vote are also good ideas if you live there.
Wisconsin: Unknown/Feingold likely to be close once the Republican is official. Primary Sept. 14. Donations might help! Working the polls, get out the vote, or just pushing friends and neighbors to go vote are also good ideas if you live there.
W Va: Raese/Manchin, potentially in play if the Dems continue to mess up, but not terribly close at this point. Donations might help! Working the polls, get out the vote, or just pushing friends and neighbors to go vote are also good ideas if you live there.
Six seats that Dems hold and are very likely to keep:
New York: Both seats up for election, but if the GOP can pick up Gillibrand's it's because we're sweeping the board. Primary Sept. 14.
Oregon: Unlikely, Wyden is pretty strong.
Vermont: Unlikely, Leahy is VERY strong.
Maryland: Unlikely, Milkulski is pretty strong.
Hawaii: Unlikely, Inouye is pretty strong.
Note:
FL and
NH are open GOP seats with races that are close, but we have a good chance to hold both seats if we get our voters to the polls and the dead don't outnumber us. No other GOP seats are in play. Also, the incoming Republics vary from nearly perfect to marginally better than the outgoing Dems, and I hope the purists will still celebrate even moderate GOP victories. Snowe and McCain are better than nothing, barely, and a whole lot better than true-believer Dems. And we can always replace them next time around.