Same modeling that had Kerry beating Bush on ‘04?
Nope. People putting real money on the line. Oh, the D has 60% to win Pres in 2012. Looks like they’re running Hitlery. Repub at 39%. 150% return in 26 months - take the money and run.
Romney leading candidate at 29-30. Thune at 18. Pawlenty at 11-23. Daniels at 7-10, Huck at 6-7, Jeb at 5-8, Ron Paul at 4-5, Ryan at 3-4, Jindal at 4-5, Gingrich (Gingrich!) at 9-10. Lots of easy money on against.
Palin at 18-19 to take nomination. That’d be a contingent probability of <8% for Palin to be President, or 12-1 against.