To: SeekAndFind
Silver's model is pretty basic, and the more complex parts are heavily judgmental. In addition, his pollster ratings are poor.
It's amazing the complete dearth of analytical talent publicly working on this sort of thing.
16 posted on
09/08/2010 9:33:35 AM PDT by
Crichton
To: Crichton
A lot of the polls still list the Arkansas Senate race as “leans” GOP.. Hehehehehe..I’d hate to see what they call a sure pick-up
18 posted on
09/08/2010 9:47:19 AM PDT by
ken5050
(The meek shall inherit the earth, but no way Kendrick Meek beats Marco Rubio)
To: Crichton
My model, based solely on the Rasmussen polls, has the Republican probability of a take-over at 19.7%, which is a bit lower than the roughly 25% in this article. However, my model has only been showing sharp movement in the past three weeks, and I hope to see this momentum continue into the next weeks.
-PJ
29 posted on
09/08/2010 10:37:20 AM PDT by
Political Junkie Too
("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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