Posted on 09/17/2010 12:12:01 PM PDT by Monitor
After a decisive win in Tuesday’s Republican Primary, businessman Ron Johnson now holds a seven-point lead over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Johnson picking up 51% support, while Feingold earns the vote from 44%. One percent (1%) of voters prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.
However, the race is still considered a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.
The survey was conducted one night after Johnson’s primary victory in which he received 85% of the vote in a three-way race. Feingold, who is running for his fourth term in the Senate, ran uncontested in Tuesday’s Democratic primary. Future surveys will determine whether Johnson's jump ahead is just a post-primary bounce or reflects a serious change in the race.
This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Wisconsin to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.
When leaners are excluded from the totals, Johnson leads Feingold 50% to 43%. In late August, Johnson and Feingold were tied in results without leaners. Prior to the latest poll, support for Johnson ranged from 44% to 48% in surveys since February. In those same surveys, Feingold had consistently picked up 46% of the vote.
More than 80% of the supporters for both candidates say they've already made up their minds how they will vote in November.
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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on September 15, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Rasmussen Reports will release its first post-primary numbers for the Wisconsin gubernatorial race this weekend.
Johnson is backed by 94% of Republicans in Wisconsin, while 86% of the state's Democrats support Feingold. Johnson holds a nearly two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of Wisconsin voters favor repeal of the new national health care reform law, while 40% oppose repeal. Those numbers include 45% who Strongly Favor repeal and 31% who Strongly Oppose it. This is similar to results found nationwide.
Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters who Strongly Favor repeal back Johnson, Feingold is supported by 90% of those who are Strongly Opposed.
Forty-five percent (45%) of all voters in the state say repeal of the health care bill would be good for the economy, but 27% say it would be bad for the economy.
Johnson is viewed favorably by 61% of Wisconsin voters and unfavorably by 33%. Those numbers include 29% who view the Republican Very Favorably and 19% who view him Very Unfavorably.
Feingold’s ratings are 51% favorable, 46% unfavorable. One-in-three voters (32%) shares a Very Favorable opinion of the longtime senator, while 28% view him Very Unfavorably.
Wisconsin voters trust Republicans slightly more when it comes to economic issues, but the two parties are essentially tied in voters' minds when it comes to government ethics and health care.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters in Wisconsin approve of the job President Obama is doing, and the identical nubmer (49%) disapprove. This is little changed from the previous survey and is slightly stronger approval than Obama earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
See toplines for more data from this survey. Platinum Members get to dig deeper in the numbers.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Wisconsin during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama defeating McCain by a 51% to 44% margin. Obama won 56% to 43%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen polling showed Kerry leading Bush in the state by a 48% to 46% margin. Kerry won 50% to 49%.
In 2006 Senator Herb Kohl was ahead of Robert Lorge 64% to 25% in the final Rasmussen poll. Kohl won 67% to 30%. In the governor’s race that year, Rasmussen polling showed Jim Doyle leading Mark Green 48% to 44%. Doyle won 53% to 45%. In 2004, the last time Feingold won reelection, final Rasmussen polling showed Feingold leading 53% to 43%. Feingold won 55% to 44%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on September 15, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
It could be a post-win bump. But I think the trend here is with Johnson. And the enthusiasm is undoubtedly on his side. Add 2-3 points to any poll.
Agreed. Buh-bye Rusty.
Funny how uber-liberal Rusty is all over the airwaves painting himself as a conservative.
That 50% number is huge in an election, and difficult, but not impossible to overcome.
Especially when an Incumbent is involved, the voters already know them and have had enough of them.
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