More likely "tens of millions" of Japanese would have died due to an invasion.
I just read your link. It would have been a very bloody invasion with Japanese having home court advantage for sniping and guerrilla activity. Japan has plenty of mountains for fanatical guerrilla forces to hole up in for years
It is much easier when we got the Emperor (their god on earth) to surrender via A-bombs. He signaled the entire nation to stand down and surrender
I read the link and my thoughts went back to that Sept. 2 date. I was in a infantry replacement depot on Leyte. Many soldiers had anxieties about the invasion of Japan of which we would be part. The scuttlebutt was that very heavy casualties would happen. On that date I was about 10th in a line to pick up new combat gear. A Lt. came out and told us to go back to our tents as the war was over and no more shooting. Also ,no more concern about having to be killed. I together with many G.I.s at that repple depot gave thanks that our Country had the A-bomb and had leaders who were not afraid to use it’