Remember this prediction pre Y2K by James Glassman and Kevin Hackett ?
Posted on 09/27/2010 9:48:10 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Uh-oh. Jeffrey Hirsch, author of the long-running 'Stock Trader's Almanac' has forecast the Dow Jones Industrial Index to hit 38,820.
But the catch is that he believes the majority of future gains won't start until 2017, when we enter an eight-year super boom.
So he's forecasting Dow 38,820, by 2025:
Bloomberg:
“All previous major economic booms and secular bull markets were driven by peace, inflation from war and crisis spending, and ubiquitous enabling technologies that created major cultural paradigm shifts and sustained prosperity,” he wrote in a press release sent with the 44th edition of the book.
So he's looking at the growth stage that comes after our current multi-year debacle. Still, not everyone's a believer:
“He’s got some crazy number on there,” said Frank Ingarra, a Stamford, Connecticut-based money manager at Hennessy Advisors Inc., which oversees about $900 million. “We’ve had probably one of the worst 10-year periods in history, and I think there’s just too much overhang with the government for it to get to those numbers.”
But, really, is 38,820 such a wild forecast?
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I think he’s correct. I also think that in 2025, $38,820 will buy a ham sandwich.
If/when the dollar crashes and if the DOW is then effectively reformed as an index of commodity stocks, then it could be 40,000 by 2012.
Maybe he misplaced a decimal point and means 3882.0
I don’t agree with 38,820 but I do feel that we are going to be entering a time of hyper-capitalism and we will start to see that in the near future, particularly after the election.
People are going to try and put together as much capital as possible so that they cannot be hurt in the future and many of them will succeed. Many new businesses will be formed and it will be common to know people who have several businesses going.
Be very careful of the people who cross your path over the next year or so. They may be future customers or investors who can give you a shot at becoming very well-off and you should find out as much as possible about them when you first meet.
Not if a Big Mac is $14. If the price of a Big Mac rises to $200, we could see Dow 500,000!
....or 38.820
I suppose it is “definitely possible” if California legalizes pot. And if all 30 million of them have E*trade accounts...
Of course this assumes there will be a Dow Jones Industrial average in the year 2025...
Or at least get a ham sandwich on lay-a-way.
RE: Of course this assumes there will be a Dow Jones Industrial average in the year 2025...
I’m sure there will be... but I won’t be surprised if it will now be an INTERNATIONAL INDEX.
Get some good Chinese stocks in the Dow and we’ll hit that. In fact, no reason why Chinese companies shouldn’t buy Dow companies in the coming years.
If you have a 30 year mortgage, then you can pay it off with the cost of a few ham sandwiches.
Not buying it. The markets are driven by demographics, which usually correlate to the peak in the number of 45-50 year old heads of households. That peak for us was in the late 1990’s, for Japan the late 1980’s.
The markets are going higher, but following the demographics in capitalistic countries.
You must be from the '50s :-):
ONE MEAT BALL
(L. Singer / H. Zaret)
A little man walked up and down,
He found an eating place in town.
He looked the menu through and through
To see what fifteen cents could do:
One meatball, one meatball,
He couldn't buy but one meatball.
He told the waiter near at hand
The simple dinner he had planned.
The guests were startled, one and all,
To hear that waiter loudly call:
"One meatball, one meatball,
This here gent wants one meatball."
The little man felt ill at ease,
Said "Some bread, sir, if you please."
The waiter hollered down the hall
"You get no bread with one meatball!"
One meatball, one meatball,
"You get no bread with one meatball!"
Little man felt so very bad,
One meat ball is all he had.
And in his dreams he can still hear that call
You get no bread with one meat ball.
Some loonies voted for Obama with high hopes he would make us more like Europe.
They will get their wish but didn't realize what Obama had in mind was 1923 Gernmany.
Off to market to buy a loaf of bread
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