Posted on 10/01/2010 9:31:58 AM PDT by smoothsailing
By Ron Ross
October 1, 2010
Establishment politicians think voters made a big mistake when they nominated Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware primary for Senate. Were the voters irrational or are the political pros just not seeing the whole picture?
Maybe it would help the political experts if they considered the situation from the perspective of a basic tool of probability theory -- "expected value." Expected value can be an immensely useful concept, especially in the context of decision-making. It is the payoff of some outcome times the probability of it happening....
snip
Now apply that concept to analyzing the thinking of voters in the O'Donnell vs. Castle primary contest. The "experts" (Karl Rove, most notably) told voters that even though they might prefer O'Donnell, she would not be able to win in the November general election. According to the pundits, it simply is not possible for a conservative to win in a liberal-leaning state like Delaware. They think nominating O'Donnell reduces the probability of Republicans gaining majority control of the Senate.
Now assume that voters put some credence in the predictions of the analysts and believed that the probability of O'Donnell winning the general election was lower than Castle's chances would have been. Those are the relative probabilities, but what are the relative values of the two possible outcomes?
Voters may have perceived relatively little difference in results between Castle or a Democrat winning in November. An event with a high probability still has a low expected value if the payoff is low. The voters could well have been acting logically and rationally by going with the long-shot....
snip
Voters simply did not place much subjective value on helping someone get elected just because he calls himself a Republican. The voters wanted to aim higher....
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
Given that incumbents are quite likely to be re-elected forever, it’s a poor choice to elect a RINO Senator.
Given that incumbents are quite likely to be re-elected forever, it’s a poor choice to elect a RINO Senator.
So how will you like a permanent governing chair for Sen. Coons (DE / CPUSA)?
Good article. It was my thinking but I didn’t put it into an expected value framework, and it’s a darn good way to analyze a primary choice. If Castle is worth 5 hard choice conservative vote on pieces of legislation and nominations and 45 liberal vote cave ins, and O’Donnell is worth 50 conservative hard choice conservative votes . . . well, it’s a coin flip if O’Donnell has a 5% chance of winning and Castle has 50% chance of winning as to which is better. Expected value is the same. Bet doesn’t really matter. The kicker in this race is that this is a tough year for “sure thing” candidates on the Dem side . . . and moderates don’t seem to ever perform as well as their backers claim they will.
It’s not just that the RINO will get elected election after election in the general. It’s that in years that are favorable to conservatives, at least in the past, no one challenged the RINOs in the primary. So the RINO blocks the conservative from a probable win in the general . . . by not having them run at all.
Hopefully Tea Party permanently changes that.
You’re damn right we knew what we were doing.
I wake up every day of late with a smile on my face. For if nothing else, MIKE CASTLE IS GONE!
Sure I want Christine to win and I really think she will. I continue to be amazed at how the Ruling Class is being overlooked for exactly the likes of Christine O’Donnell, the witch whose house was almost foreclosed, you should smile.
But if Coons wins...so what? I’d have either Castle voting for Cap and Trade or Coons voting for Cap and Trade now somebody all big and smart in the ruling class tell me how I am any WORSE off?
And this way, well we’ve got a SHOT at getting a working class congress critter in there, which is the latest trend this election year case y’all didn’t hear.
What’s that you say? That if Castle had won there would be a Republican majority in the senate? And this means what?
Oh wait, the pubs get to head all the committees and get the nicest office.
somembody tell the Ruling Class that this means pretty much nothing to us morons out here in la-la land where we carry this country on our backs.
They just don’t get it but never mind y’all....we got it in spades here in Delaware and y’all probably got lots of it out where you live.
What’s this I speak of?
COMMON SENSE!
The Ruling Class doesn’t have any, hence they cannot grasp.
It’s God’s way of keeping us from being taken over by fools and knaves.
It’s perfect given that so many “moderates” (COD haters and RINO Castle supporters) are in favor. That’s apparently the will of the People and many FReepers.
What I posted in another thread:
Mike Castle won’t even stand with O’Donnell to fight against self admitted Marxist, but we were supposed to believe that once in the senate he would have stood firm with DeMint to fight against the Obama Marxist agenda?
With every action he has taken since the primary Castle proves that the Republicans in Delaware made the right choice.
He won’t stand with O’Donnell to fight against self admitted Marxist, but we were supposed to believe he would have stood with DeMint to fight against the Obama Marxist agenda.
With every action he has taken since the primary Castle proves that win or lose in November, the Republicans in Delaware made the right choice. If Mike Castle wants to help the Marxist agenda he can do it under their banner and use their resources, we will not tolerate him doing it on our dollar and in our name.
Is it not the political proffesionals who got us into this mess?
Castle is bitter he didn’t win, and would have bombed against Coons anyway. O’Donnell has half a chance.
Great point.
It sure got Olympia Snowe and Susan Collin’s attention!
If going long-term and wanting to rid the GOP of RINOs, even at the short-term expense of a "gimme" Senate seat is something the pundits choose not to understand, then that's their problem.
The establishment types aren't accepting it gracefully, but the TEA Partiers are force-feeding a long-needed change to the Republican Party.
will you consider a ping list or do you have one already....I’m keenly interested in this race and I would love YOUR take being that you’re on the ground...
but you...YOU can't do the same to COD.......it shows your true colors and you are a traitor!
I read a headline, yesterday, that said that Olympia Snowe was trying to court the teaparty people. If nominating O’Donnell put the fear of teaparty retribution into a few of the other RINOs, it will be well worth it, even if she loses.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2599855/posts
"Franken commits another gaffe while presiding over Senate"
Castle won’t even do the decent sore loser thing and run a write-in campaign so he can split the anti-conservative vote.
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