Posted on 10/05/2010 5:54:44 AM PDT by Kaslin
People talk about wanting to get the money out of politics, but fundraising totals can tell us a lot about who's hitting their stride and who will soon be hitting the bench.
We are now within striking distance of November 2, so much so that Muse’s “Uprising” is my ringtone. “Rise up and take the power back/It’s time the fat cats had a heart attack … .”
As we get down to the wire, polls matter, block walks matter, enthusiasm matters — and money matters. In fact, money tells us a lot about the health of a candidate and where he or she stands in relation to his or her opponent. Money raised and money in the war chest tells us who’s going to hit the gas through October, and who’s going to be running on fumes when election day draws near.
That in mind, let’s turn our eyes to Texas. Much has been made of Democrat Bill White’s relatively strong run for governor. The former Houston mayor has never led incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry, but the race hasn’t been a blowout. Perry currently has a poll lead somewhere between 6 and 8 points, with the margins of error making that as close as 3 points or as wide as maybe 10. For a conservative Republican running in a conservative Republican bastion in a decidedly Republican year, even that’s a little closer than anyone expected. Particularly if we’re really at the low end of those margins. For the record, I don’t think we are, but now is not a time to take anything for granted.
The money lines tell us a very different story from the polls. Earlier in the year, Bill White had a cash advantage and went on a spending spree and bought millions of dollars in media. To some extent he needed to; the question was whether he was spending his money too early, and was he spending too much of it within Houston where he should be strong. As the former mayor of Houston, he was for all intents and purposes unknown to the vast majority of Texans. He had to convince them that he’s not just another big-spending, tax-loving liberal Democrat. He went into that buying season with a deficit in the polls of between 6 and 8 points, and came out of with a poll deficit of … between 6 and 8 points. Six million dollars didn’t move the needle a bit, but they did put White’s campaign a little behind Perry’s in cash on hand at that point. But where are we now?
On Monday, both campaigns released their numbers for the past quarter, July through September. Both campaigns crowed about their healthy numbers. But in a race of two, only one can come in first. And here are their respective numbers.
According to the White campaign, Bill White raised $4.68 million, and now has $2.75 million cash on hand. That’s not bad.
But I bet he wants that $6 million back that he spent too early in the campaign to introduce himself. Since that time, he had a miserable couple of weeks as President Obama’s visit to Texas sent him running for the hills. And he’s had to answer for the whole BTEC scandal, in which he apparently profiteered from a company he hired to perform services during hurricane relief. Hurricane relief had been Bill White’s claim to governmental competency; that story made it his claim to corruption.
Gov. Perry’s fundraising numbers run like this: In the same period in which White raised nearly $5 million, Perry raised $8.2 million. He reports a little over $10 million cash on hand.
White: $2.75 million cash on hand. Perry: $10 million cash on hand. That’s nearly a four-to-one advantage for Perry, with about four weeks to go. When I reached the campaign Monday night, Perry campaign spokesman Mark Miner was blunt: “Bill White has run his campaign into the ground financially, much like he did to the city of Houston when he was mayor. Now he is bankrupt on ideas and campaign dollars.”
There’s more bad news for White. A week back, the Democratic Governors Association announced that they were pouring about $2 million into Texas. That sounds like good news for White, and it mostly is, but there’s a catch: The DGA is spending the money directly. They don’t want White to manage it so they’re buying the ads themselves. That’s not only a vote of no confidence in the way White is running his campaign, it’s a vote of no confidence with a price tag. If the DGA gave their money directly to White, they’d get his advertising rates, which means their dollars would go about 25% farther.
So why would the DGA waste so much money this way? Word is, White is micromanaging his campaign, and he’s just not doing it well. Every tweet, every Facebook post, every ad — everything — has to pass his eyes before it goes out. He’s strangling his own campaign, and he can ill afford to. White simply is not raising the money to keep up with Perry, and what he did raise early on, he wasted.
This race isn’t over yet, not by a long shot. But Gov. Perry is poised to take his lead through the last month of the campaign running strong, while the best White can do is struggle just to get to the finishing line.
Would a new state income tax be "holding the line"?
His comment "I want Texas not just to lead the nation in minimum wage jobs, but technology and clean energy".
Then stop encouraging illegal immigrants to come here and work for minimum wage or below MW.
Clean energy is a farce. It's like reform communism and peaceful Islamic theocratic imperialism.
Any Texan who votes for this Clintonista “White”....is an idgit !
Two words: Sanctuary City
I’ve noticed that the Dummys who voted for Lee P. Brown 3 terms are now silent over their guy. The Comical was even so brazen as to talk about how sh&tty a mayoral choice Brown was AFTER the final re-election vote was tallied.
The anti-smoking Left also fell silent when Ann Richards went to work as a tobacco lobbyist after she was voted out. “Well everybody needs to earn a living and it IS a legal product...”
It's hilarious. Bill White's such a poor challenger to Perry... like a fish in a barrel.
Who said white people don't like to work.
Yep....LOL. Ann Richards...I’m eatin lunch dang it....:o)
She was a piece of ...ummmm....work.
Stay Safe !
I heard on the news yesterday that the Houston Police Officers Union is going to endorse Perry.
“Think he will bother trying to run again in 2012 for Kay’s Senate seat?”
I think this entire White for gov campaign is a way for White to get his name out for the 2012 Senate race.
“Think he will bother trying to run again in 2012 for Kay’s Senate seat?”
I think this entire White for gov campaign is a way for White to get his name out for the 2012 Senate race.
It was at one time, but has he exposed himself too much? He will also have to be careful about his profiteering from state deals for the next 2 years.
Indeed.
Perry sucks but we need him to win for the good not only of Texas but of the whole country.
Absolutely.
I said I’d never vote for Perry again, and I’m eating those words.
The future of the republic is at stake here, and redistricting next year is critical. Say what you will about Perry, he can and will do his part in that battle, if only for his own best interests.
For the first time in my life, I will vote a straight GOP ticket next month.
Well said.
Kay has already said that she will not be running in 2012. She may backtrack on that but she made the declaration even before she lost the Governor’s race.
Lt. Gov. Dewhurst is considered to be one in the running for her seat.
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