It's all speculation. That's the point. Market fundamentals mean nothing. The next phase will be another round of "quantitative easing" by the Fed, meaning a direct injection of liquidity (artificially-created credit) into the markets.
The likely result will be a continuing boom in equities (and in commodity prices) regardless of underlying fundamentals; long-term unemployment will increase and consumer demand will languish, until... the game will be up.
My guess: government stimulus will no longer have any effect as credit gets sopped up by the banks and held in reserve against mounting default risks. Our declining currency will force a decoupling of the dollar from international trade. We are becoming Japan - only worse; our savings rate is lower and our debt is astronomically higher. The market will begin a slow decline into an abyss from which recovery will take a generation.
Thanks for your “best guess”.
Thanks, two interesting pieces of analysis.