Posted on 10/11/2010 6:48:26 PM PDT by randita
House Projection for October 11
October marches on, and so does the House generic ballot polling. Last week Republicans were on the rebound and this week every single generic is showing Republicans back on top, as has not been the case lately.
So let’s see what the damage is.
As usual, to run my projection I take the recent generic ballot polls from Real Clear Politics, subtract out the undecideds and third party votes to get a pure two party vote, then compare that with the two party vote of 2008.
From there, I take a weighted average of the swing from 2008 to now in each poll, with Likely Voter polls counting double the weight of Registered Voter polls. That average is then run through the Swingometer to get a projected House composition.
That Gallup Low poll is still awfully out there on a limb, though it’s not quite as far as it was last week. It’s going to give a little lift to the average though since this week saw no Newsweek or similar poll going out the other way.
All are Likely Voter polls this time, so no weighting is needed, and the mean swing is 22.0. Giving that figure to Swingometer returns a 60 seat Republican gain over 2008, and a 238 R-197 D House majority.
Once again, we’re back into the kind of midterm territory more often seen before the Eisenhower administration and mostly ween before World War II, when Presidential coattails were massive and the midterms corrected for them.
Ping
I like the district by district analysis and summation.
I believe it will be much closer to 100 than 60.
I am assuming you mean ‘net’ correct?
That depends on us voting, getting out the vote, and getting other working Americans to get out the vote. ACORN and the SEIU will be getting out the dead vote, and we need to drown their fraud with a tidal wave of valid votes.
I like your enthusiasm.
It would be nice if we could include several hundred thousand absentee military ballots that are going to be thrown out. Witness New York.
If we come out ahead, it won’t be because it was a “free and fair” election.
I’ll vote. I’d vote if I was the only conservative in the entire county.
60 now and on November 2, 80 ~ 100 seat gain.
As long as we are making predictions I am going with 102 House seats and 15 Senate seats.
I’m going with 120 House and 16 Senate.
And Barney Frank having to FIND A JOB.
And investigations into Obama’s foreign donations.
This should be in the senate.
The yahoo group of retired military personnel I belong to in the Philippines, (300 +), have all voted absentee. Most of us are conservative and know that the OBAMACARE will be bad for us under the Tricare program. Along with that, we are in a major fight with Tricare concerning the unequal benefits that we have here. For more info on our issues, please go to our FB site http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/TRICARE-Overseas-The-Wall-of-Shame/113467078703149?ref=ts
I don't vote absentee for exactly this reason, unless there is no possible way of voting at the polls that year, and I hope other conservatives will also vote in person. It is MUCH harder to challenge a ballot cast in person than one sent through the mail, and the Dems are experts at disenfranchising legitimate voters, especially the military.
Here is how they look right now:
I read somewhere yesterday that CQ has not had an update since 9/20, so you haven’t missed anything. They are woefully out of date, but probably happily so considering their political leanings.
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