This model does come close to a good number. Compare to intrade.com, which predicts Republicans gain between 55-60 seats, and yet only 85% chance of Republicans taking the House. Nice overlay here.
Also, read the fine print on DemonRat control of the Senate on Intrade. Intrade doesn’t count Lieberman and Sanders, and won’t count Crist or Murkowski, for either party. So, at about 10%, neither party controlling the Senate is low, and Demons at 50% is too high.
“Compare to intrade.com, which predicts Republicans gain between 55-60 seats, and yet only 85% chance of Republicans taking the House.”
This makes sense, because an outlyer “october surprise” might happen, so there is that 10-15% chance of a shift that denies GOP a House majority, but almost certainty that we are on track to a big GOP victory.