Given that most of the pundits are still behind the curve, I expect that GOP pickups will be far, far north of 44 seats. For the sake of argument, you should move every pundit rating one spot towards the GOP (likely Dem to leans Dem, leans Dem to tossup, tossup to leans GOP, leand GOP to likely GOP, etc.) and run the numbers again to see what happens.
Excellent idea...I read on Cook a few days ago how his ranking is biased towards incumbents..which are practically all Dem. Indeed he said that if an incumbent is under 50%, and has not been indicted, he rates it a toss-up. Pollsters are like surfers, they don’t always catch a really big wave...or they’re afraid to hang way out on it..
Indeed. I saw a list of ‘pickups’ of 50, then a list of 26 tossups, and in the tossups, many Rs are running ahead.
If the energy/turnout holds, GOP will sweep those 26+ and a few others ... pickup of 70+ seats is possible.
It all comes down to turnout and the swing vote’s final decision.
PJ: Is this a practical thing to do? If so, you should run it with both the Poll/Expert and Expert only models.
Given that most of the pundits are still behind the curve, I expect that GOP pickups will be far, far north of 44 seats. For the sake of argument, you should move every pundit rating one spot towards the GOP (likely Dem to leans Dem, leans Dem to tossup, tossup to leans GOP, leand GOP to likely GOP, etc.) and run the numbers again to see what happens.
I agree.
Currently, I think we get nine senate seats, but again, it might conceivably be 10.