Windows Phone 7's Bogus 'Too Late' Problem (Tardiness DOES NOT destroy chance of success)

PC World ^ | 10/18/2010 | Jared Newman

[SeekAndFind]

Want to dismiss Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 outright? Simply wave a hand in the air and say "too little, too late." Everyone's doing it (myself included).

More than three years have passed since the iPhone debuted, and one year ago this month, Verizon and Google announced an Android partnership that led to the popular Droid line of smartphones. Indeed, Microsoft is late to the party, but after further consideration, I don't buy the idea that tardiness destroys Windows Phone 7's chances of success.

First, let's debunk the idea that arriving early is a sure way to become popular. In 2008, Apple was dominating the slick touch screen smartphone market, and the tech press was starved for anything that looked remotely like an iPhone killer. Blackberry's Storm was the first candidate, at least until it actually arrived. Reviews were mediocre, and sales underperformed.

Then, there was the Palm Pre, which launched on Sprint in June 2009. Also hailed as an iPhone killer, the Pre was reviewed favorably, unlike the Storm. But sales were weak, and under HP, Palm is trying for a second coming with WebOS 2.0.

As for being late, Windows Phone 7's detractors assume, incorrectly, that there's no room left in the smartphone market for another platform. Over the next four years, global smartphone shipments are expected to double, according to iSuppli, and right now smartphones are the fastest-growing category of mobile phones. Plenty of people haven't jumped on board yet.

Meanwhile, Research in Motion, the smartphone market leader in the United States, is flailing. Quarterly Blackberry sales in the Untied States recently fell behind Android for the first time, according to The NPD Group.

[Yo-Yo]

I’m waiting for the Linux Smart Phone...

[dfwgator]

“The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.”

[VanDeKoik]

The only people who say this have an iPhone in their hand.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: “the second mouse gets the cheese”

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Only if they learn from the mistakes of the earlies ones. I am not convince that Microsoft has learned enough to get the cheese. Not yet. Too early to tell.

[SeekAndFind]

Actually if you look at the excitement level, the Windows 7 Phone did not generate the same excitement that the Apple iPhone did.

When the iPhone sale was announced in New York city, we had people lining up for blocks (AT MIDNIGHT !!), including one legislator to buy their first version of the iPhone, BUGS AND ALL.

This in the height of the recession !!

I don’t see people today excited to get their Windows 7 Phone at all.

[Wooly]

All the reviews of the Windows Phone7 and the devices have been positive. Microsoft has done something that they have not done in the past and that is to require a set of specifications from the device manufactures in order to use the OS. This has led to some very high performance hardware for the introduction.
I do not see it as an iPhone killer, but then Microsoft is wisely staying out of the hardware manufacturing. The iPhone killer will be the carriers who drop Apple products and not the device manufactures or Microsoft/Android.

[Defiant]

Tardiness combined with a product that offers nothing better than is available elsewhere and has few apps is a problem for Microsoft. They need something that gives people a reason to switch from iPhone (which will be at Verizon around the same time as Phone 7 hits stores), and Android, and even the declining Blackberry phones. What they have come up with looks good and they will get some sales. Had it come out a year ago, it might have taken a lot of Android sales and some iPhone sales. But whether they will get momentum that continues to take market share over the long term is questionable right now.

[Johnny B.]

Android phones, among others, run Linux.

[coaltrain]

Microsoft has been in the phone OS business for almost 10 years and they hadn’t gotten it right. I doubt they will get it right now (i.e. no multitasking, no cut and paste - yes, iPhone 1G didn’t have it either, but that was 4 years ago). Of course, Kin was their preview. Maybe after Ballmer (aka Uncle Fester) gets the boot.

[Yo-Yo]

Android phones, among others, run Linux.

So you can load open source apps onto an Android phone? No, you cannot. They don't run Linux, they run on Linux.

I don't care what is under the hood, that's not what I meant by a Linux Phone. I'm waiting for an open source phone, where I can download open source apps without having to go through Google's or Verizon's (or Apple's) store fronts.