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Damn: Barney Frank 49, Sean Bielat 37 (WPRI POLL)
Hotair ^ | 10/22/2010 | Allahpundit

Posted on 10/22/2010 8:09:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Not a disastrous poll — there are still 12 percent undecided — but after news broke about Frank having to loan himself money, I was hoping/thinking it’d be within single digits. Not yet, and time’s running out:

“Barney Frank is holding a 12-point lead, and in a tough election year for Democrats that’s a comfortable lead going into the final two weeks of the election,” Eyewitness News political analyst Joe Fleming said. “It all depends on if Sean Bielat can grab some momentum to close that gap.”…

Both men are doing well among members of their respective parties, with Frank backed by 80 percent of Democrats and Bielat by 92 percent of Republicans. “Barney’s got a real strong base there, and that’s really propelling him right now” in the heavily Democratic 4th, Fleming said.

Among independents, Bielat is beating Frank by 44 percent to 35 percent, with another 17 percent still undecided. But Bielat will need to win unaffiliated voters by a much bigger margin in order to defeat Frank, Fleming said…

WPRI has offered to host a prime-time debate between Frank and Bielat focused on issues of concern to voters in Bristol County, Mass. Both campaigns originally agreed in principle to participate, but Frank’s campaign later changed its mind, citing scheduling issues.

The killer demographic: As usual, it’s the gender gap. Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2. Unless he can put a giant dent in that in the next 12 days, I don’t know how he gets to 51 percent.

Here’s the new Bielat ad from Ladd “Dale Peterson” Ehlinger; Ace was in the studio while it was being filmed, but that’s not him playing Barney — or so he claims. The concept is cute, but I’m not sure how much it does to advance the ball, especially with women. The middle section, with dancing and Frank soundbites and text rushing by, is hard to keep track of.



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: barneyfrank; election; poll; seanbielat

1 posted on 10/22/2010 8:09:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

If Frank had to loan his campaign 200 large, it would be a lot closer than 12.


2 posted on 10/22/2010 8:10:59 AM PDT by AU72
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To: SeekAndFind

What did you expect in mASSachusetts?


3 posted on 10/22/2010 8:11:31 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: SeekAndFind

Driving through Newton yesterday I was pleased to see more Bielat signs than Frank signs.


4 posted on 10/22/2010 8:11:39 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: SeekAndFind

How can anybody vote for that fat corrupt little pervert?


5 posted on 10/22/2010 8:12:55 AM PDT by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The good news is that it should be 30. This bodes well for more competitive races.


6 posted on 10/22/2010 8:13:33 AM PDT by Free Vulcan (No prisoners, no mercy. 2010 is here...)
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To: SeekAndFind

When we were kids, part of the fun of the upcoming Christmas season was dreaming about what gifts we might receive. We might or might not actually receive those gifts . . . but still, it was fun imagining we would.

Part of the fun of the upcoming election is dreaming about what gifts we might receive. We might or might not actually receive those gifts . . . but still, it is fun imagining we will.

Same thing here with Barney and Sean. It is BEYOND FUN to imagine Barney is ousted by Sean Bielet. We can contribute to Sean, make calls, promote him, walk his district . . . he might or might not win. Whichever way it turns out . . . right now . . it is fun to dream!!!


7 posted on 10/22/2010 8:15:38 AM PDT by BAW ("We can absorb a terrorist attack." - Pres Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: SeekAndFind

For an incumbent, to be so far below 50%, (Frank at 44%) is not impressive at all.


8 posted on 10/22/2010 8:16:53 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: SeekAndFind

Brown would be a huge help to Bielat. But he refuses to campaign for him - because Bielat criticized Brown’s vote on the Frank/Dodd FinReg bill.


9 posted on 10/22/2010 8:17:07 AM PDT by nhwingut (Palin/Bachmann '12)
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To: beethovenfan

RE: How can anybody vote for that fat corrupt little pervert?


ANS: People who PREFER fat corrupt little perverts.


10 posted on 10/22/2010 8:19:23 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

As much as I hate to say it, I think Sean will lose. Being under 40% at this point, with a double-digit deficit is just a little too much to overcome. The Enthusiasm Factor may be good for about three points (like the Homefield Advantage in the NFL). But, we must not overrate it.

The good news is that Sean is now perfectly positioned to take Fwank out the next time around. He needs to stay in the game, do the rubber chicken circuit, network in Washington, and lather up the high dollar donors over the next two years.

My prediction: if Sean does the above and polls strongly in early to mid 2012, Fwank will decide to retire and enjoy life as an atrophied, old queen.


11 posted on 10/22/2010 8:21:04 AM PDT by hampdenkid
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To: SeekAndFind

The potential of this poll being accurate this close to the election are about as likely as them supporting a Republican Candidate. The subsequent questions including who is to blame for the financial crisis are indicative of a serious over sampling of the far left. However, Frank’s district is shaped like the terminal end of a large intestine for a reason.


12 posted on 10/22/2010 8:21:49 AM PDT by Steamburg (The contents of your wallet is the only language Politicians understand.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ugh, female voters again. They really love them some Democrats.


13 posted on 10/22/2010 8:22:09 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: SeekAndFind
No, the article gives the real reason:

among women he (Bielat) trails … 54.7 to 30.2.

14 posted on 10/22/2010 8:24:10 AM PDT by qwertypie
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To: SeekAndFind
I'd take that with a grain of salt. Think about it, you're a woman in the liberal Chithole of Mass. and someone taking a survey asks you who you're voting for. Would you really say you were voting for anyone other than Frank? I say that nine times out of ten people would say Frank even if they were dying to vote against him. That's how things work in a tyranny like MA, people are afraid to say what they really think to anyone who might be able to connect them to the comment they make.

Regards

15 posted on 10/22/2010 8:28:13 AM PDT by Rashputin (Obama is already insane and sequestered on golf courses or vacations so you won't know it)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Both men” ?????????????


16 posted on 10/22/2010 8:29:41 AM PDT by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: hampdenkid
My prediction: if Sean does the above and polls strongly in early to mid 2012, Fwank will decide to retire and enjoy life as an atrophied, old queen.

All depends on how redistricting goes. MA will probably lose 1 seat as a result of the 2010 census. Depending on how this race and MA-10, which was looking good until earlier this week when Perry was blasted with bad publicity about a bust gone bad when he was a cop, it's hard to know what the districts will look like.

17 posted on 10/22/2010 8:32:23 AM PDT by sonnysteelgrave (Don't Blame me, I'm from Massachusettes)
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To: SeekAndFind
This appears to be a poll by the local SeeBS TV franchise. If so, it is not to be believed in any form or fashion.

A much better indication of the outcome is the response by the major parties. They have their own internal polls which are typically pretty good.

Both the Pubs and Rats are pouring money into the race. Some big time Rats are coming to town to stump for Fwank ... at this late stage when their time and money are especially precious. That speaks volumes.

In other words, reading the signs and signals, Bawney Boy is in big twouble.

18 posted on 10/22/2010 8:34:53 AM PDT by Zakeet (Like the wise Wee Wee said, "We can't be broke ... we still have checks in the checkbook.")
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To: SeekAndFind

“among women he [Bielat] trails … 54.7 to 30.2”

Please, someone PLEASE explain this to me.


19 posted on 10/22/2010 8:35:58 AM PDT by eCSMaster
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To: nhwingut; fieldmarshaldj; Impy; Perdogg; Clintonfatigued
100% right! Snot also did the same thing to Rob McCarthy in the 6th district (he lost the primary to Bill Hudak). McCarthy (the real conservative) came out WAY against the banking bill and was left to twist in the wind.

Snot sucks. Yes, it was good that a “Republican” won the “Kennedy Seat”, but he still sucks; marginally better than the Maine Twins.

BTW, Bielat will win this. If signs are an indicator, Bielat has about a 10:1 advantage in the areas where Bwaney gets his $upport from.

20 posted on 10/22/2010 8:36:20 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Support and vote for Sean Bielat (MA-4)! MA-4 is Barney Frank's district.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Poll end date: January 13, 2010,
Poll result: Coakley(49) ahead of Brown(41) by 8.
Election date: Januray 19, 2010 (just 6 days later)
Election result: Coakley (47) lost to Brown(52) by 5 (the poll had Brown under-polled by 11, and Coakley over-polled by 2).

Poll end date: October 17, 2010,
Poll result: Frank(49) ahead of Bielat(37) by 12.
Election date: November 2, 2010 (16 days after the poll)
Possible Election result: Frank(47) loses to Bielat(48) by 1 (if this poll also has Bielat under-polled by 11, and Frank over-polled by 2).


21 posted on 10/22/2010 8:38:28 AM PDT by Notwithstanding
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To: hampdenkid

The real question is if the GOP gets the majority, will Barney want to weather the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac investigations? Does he want his ex-lover called up to testify before a congressional committee? He may retire suddenly just because he doesn’t want to be a powerless back bencher.

There may be a special election before 2012.

But I am hopeful the Sean can pull it out. Remember the polls did not give Brown a shot either until the day before the election.


22 posted on 10/22/2010 8:41:34 AM PDT by Truth is a Weapon (If I weren't afraid of the feds, I would refer to Obama as our "undocumented POTUS")
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To: SeekAndFind

One reason Frank keeps getting reelected is because his congressional district is gerrymandered. See here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Massachusetts%27s_4th_congressional_district.gif


23 posted on 10/22/2010 8:46:34 AM PDT by cowtowney
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To: cowtowney

Boston chicks think of themselves as Sex in the City girls. They all did the Barny Frank Fag hag thing.....


24 posted on 10/22/2010 8:51:00 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (We are so screwed.)
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To: cowtowney

Boston chicks think of themselves as Sex in the City girls. They all dig the Barny Frank Fag hag thing.....


25 posted on 10/22/2010 8:51:10 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (We are so screwed.)
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To: hampdenkid
The good news is that Sean is now perfectly positioned to take Fwank out the next time around. He needs to stay in the game, do the rubber chicken circuit, network in Washington, and lather up the high dollar donors over the next two years.

He might, but generally midterm elections are high water marks for challengers to incumbents. In a Presidential election year, especially the way 2012 is shaping up, the dynamic is very different. This is the year the 'Pubs have to do well, because whoever doesn't win this time around will probably be looking at a much tougher environment in 2012.

The Massholes in Bawney's district just make this one of those places where an established and entrenched 'Rat like Fwank are that much harder to dig out. There are just places like that, where the 'Rat seemingly has the seat for life if they want it. MD is that way, too. Look how long that old hag Mikulski has been hanging around. She'll probably die in office, the old bat.

26 posted on 10/22/2010 8:56:02 AM PDT by chimera
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To: Truth is a Weapon

I really believe Sean wins. Brown won Barney’s district. There are lot more Bielat signs than Barney signs here in the heart of pinko commie land. I walked with Sean during the Portuguese Feast Parade and that’s a stronghold of Dems, the people were very receptive. Barney will be retired. Many people who aren’t hardcore dems are not voting for Barney. They may be seeing the light.


27 posted on 10/22/2010 8:56:21 AM PDT by RIGHTWING WACKO FROM MASS. (Better to have and not need than to need and not have...my theory on gun control)
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To: SeekAndFind

Read the poll sample FIRST and then you will discover why this looks so good for Frank:

Poll Sample (only 400 people):

DEMOCRAT: 42 %
REPUBLICAN: 16 %
INDEPENDENT: 40.3 %

53 % WOMEN

Analysis: This is a sampling of mainly Democrat female voters from Massachusetts. What do you expect.

Please stop posting polls unless there are at least 15+ over 2 months from multiple sources. Anything less is pretty useless and grossly misleading.


28 posted on 10/22/2010 9:01:43 AM PDT by Noamie
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To: Vermont Lt; fieldmarshaldj
Boston chicks think of themselves as Sex in the City girls.

You are SOOOOOOO right about that - unfortunately. You can spot my Boston FB "friends" by the sheer lunacy they post - they all want to be the 4 slore-dogs on that show. I really don't get it.

29 posted on 10/22/2010 9:02:18 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Support and vote for Sean Bielat (MA-4)! MA-4 is Barney Frank's district.)
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To: SeekAndFind

barney’s taking money from the banks who got bailouts after he promised not too his opponent should be making that an issue!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2612546/posts


30 posted on 10/22/2010 9:08:39 AM PDT by FromLori (FromLori)
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To: chimera

Great analysis, all the way around. With Sean, much will depend on if the Repubs get a majority in the House — and if they have the gonads to go after Fwank for his palpable malfeasance. The second, of course, is a massive if.


31 posted on 10/22/2010 9:38:53 AM PDT by hampdenkid
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To: SeekAndFind

This is a tall order. It’s probably the best opportunity the GOP will have to beat Frank, ever.


32 posted on 10/22/2010 9:44:38 AM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: SeekAndFind

don’t believe the polls


33 posted on 10/22/2010 9:48:03 AM PDT by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now and in the future)
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To: eCSMaster
If Barney wins they won't have to worry about being sexually assaulted by their congressman!!!
34 posted on 10/22/2010 10:50:38 AM PDT by Datom
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To: GOPsterinMA

They want to be 4 gay men ?


35 posted on 10/22/2010 12:49:13 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

They want to be the 4 trolls on SATC.

Let me summarize the 4 slores on SATC:

Kim Catrall was hot 30-35 years ago.
Kristin Davis is attractive, I’ll give her credit.
The dykey-looking one’s a dyke.
Sarah-Jessica-Coyote-Dog is a dog, even with the moles cut off her face.

So, 1 of the 4 is attractive, yet, some women hold them up as role models. Blah...


36 posted on 10/22/2010 1:41:33 PM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Support and vote for Sean Bielat (MA-4)! MA-4 is Barney Frank's district.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I lived in Newton for 22 years.

Frank losing is inconceivable.


37 posted on 10/22/2010 1:45:06 PM PDT by Jim Noble (It's the tyranny, stupid!)
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To: Jim Noble
Frank losing is inconceivable.

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

38 posted on 10/22/2010 1:45:55 PM PDT by dfwgator (Rangers leading the ALCS 3 games to 2)
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To: eCSMaster

“Please explain this to me”

OK. I lived there for 22 years. A very substantial number of those women hate men, hate masculinity, and hate Marines most of all.


39 posted on 10/22/2010 1:48:05 PM PDT by Jim Noble (It's the tyranny, stupid!)
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To: eCSMaster
Please, someone PLEASE explain this to me.

There's not just one answer. There are the young single career girls in Boston who always vote for pro-abortion candidates. There are a lot of married liberal women in the wealthy suburbs. And then there are older women in the mill towns who would never vote for a Republican either, because of Social Security, the Great Depression, and ethnic tribalism: it's how they were brought up. Add them up and that's Barney's vote.

40 posted on 10/22/2010 2:00:21 PM PDT by x
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To: SeekAndFind

I wouldn’t place a bet on Frank losing this one, but he’s certainly heading in the wrong direction. The majority isn’t sold on voting to re-elect him. His lead is “double digit”, but it’s similar to the “double digit” leads held by Murkowski and Castle prior to them losing narrowly in their primaries - dwindling numbers willing to back them automatically and taking a look in the latter polls, and in this case, once again, down into the 40s so a majority of the jury is still out. They were very well known candidates vs. unknown challengers, and it may be the same as what it happening here to Frank...again, I wouldn’t be willing to bet money he’d lose given his district and its history, but based on these numbers, I also wouldn’t say his re-election is a done deal - something interesting could very well be happening here.


41 posted on 10/22/2010 2:07:37 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: GOPsterinMA

I guess they find it “empowering” how slutty they were.

I don’t know what kind of men they hooked up with but I’m assuming it wasn’t the last call types 3 of 4 would get in real life. ;d


42 posted on 10/23/2010 12:43:07 AM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy
You nailed it Impy - “empowerment”.

I watched half an episode once, and Chris Noth was the object of desire for Sarah-Jessica-Springer-Spaniel, so yeah, the scags were apparently landing good looking guys...way out of their league.

43 posted on 10/23/2010 6:32:09 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (Support and vote for Sean Bielat (MA-4)! MA-4 is Barney Frank's district.)
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