Skip to comments.Damn: Barney Frank 49, Sean Bielat 37 (WPRI POLL)
Posted on 10/22/2010 8:09:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Not a disastrous poll — there are still 12 percent undecided — but after news broke about Frank having to loan himself money, I was hoping/thinking it’d be within single digits. Not yet, and time’s running out:
Barney Frank is holding a 12-point lead, and in a tough election year for Democrats thats a comfortable lead going into the final two weeks of the election, Eyewitness News political analyst Joe Fleming said. It all depends on if Sean Bielat can grab some momentum to close that gap.”…
Both men are doing well among members of their respective parties, with Frank backed by 80 percent of Democrats and Bielat by 92 percent of Republicans. Barneys got a real strong base there, and thats really propelling him right now in the heavily Democratic 4th, Fleming said.
Among independents, Bielat is beating Frank by 44 percent to 35 percent, with another 17 percent still undecided. But Bielat will need to win unaffiliated voters by a much bigger margin in order to defeat Frank, Fleming said…
WPRI has offered to host a prime-time debate between Frank and Bielat focused on issues of concern to voters in Bristol County, Mass. Both campaigns originally agreed in principle to participate, but Franks campaign later changed its mind, citing scheduling issues.
The killer demographic: As usual, it’s the gender gap. Bielat’s actually beating Frank among men, 45.2/42.6; among women he trails … 54.7 to 30.2. Unless he can put a giant dent in that in the next 12 days, I don’t know how he gets to 51 percent.
Here’s the new Bielat ad from Ladd “Dale Peterson” Ehlinger; Ace was in the studio while it was being filmed, but that’s not him playing Barney — or so he claims. The concept is cute, but I’m not sure how much it does to advance the ball, especially with women. The middle section, with dancing and Frank soundbites and text rushing by, is hard to keep track of.
If Frank had to loan his campaign 200 large, it would be a lot closer than 12.
What did you expect in mASSachusetts?
Driving through Newton yesterday I was pleased to see more Bielat signs than Frank signs.
How can anybody vote for that fat corrupt little pervert?
The good news is that it should be 30. This bodes well for more competitive races.
When we were kids, part of the fun of the upcoming Christmas season was dreaming about what gifts we might receive. We might or might not actually receive those gifts . . . but still, it was fun imagining we would.
Part of the fun of the upcoming election is dreaming about what gifts we might receive. We might or might not actually receive those gifts . . . but still, it is fun imagining we will.
Same thing here with Barney and Sean. It is BEYOND FUN to imagine Barney is ousted by Sean Bielet. We can contribute to Sean, make calls, promote him, walk his district . . . he might or might not win. Whichever way it turns out . . . right now . . it is fun to dream!!!
For an incumbent, to be so far below 50%, (Frank at 44%) is not impressive at all.
Brown would be a huge help to Bielat. But he refuses to campaign for him - because Bielat criticized Brown’s vote on the Frank/Dodd FinReg bill.
RE: How can anybody vote for that fat corrupt little pervert?
ANS: People who PREFER fat corrupt little perverts.
As much as I hate to say it, I think Sean will lose. Being under 40% at this point, with a double-digit deficit is just a little too much to overcome. The Enthusiasm Factor may be good for about three points (like the Homefield Advantage in the NFL). But, we must not overrate it.
The good news is that Sean is now perfectly positioned to take Fwank out the next time around. He needs to stay in the game, do the rubber chicken circuit, network in Washington, and lather up the high dollar donors over the next two years.
My prediction: if Sean does the above and polls strongly in early to mid 2012, Fwank will decide to retire and enjoy life as an atrophied, old queen.
The potential of this poll being accurate this close to the election are about as likely as them supporting a Republican Candidate. The subsequent questions including who is to blame for the financial crisis are indicative of a serious over sampling of the far left. However, Frank’s district is shaped like the terminal end of a large intestine for a reason.
Ugh, female voters again. They really love them some Democrats.
among women he (Bielat) trails
54.7 to 30.2.
“Both men” ?????????????
All depends on how redistricting goes. MA will probably lose 1 seat as a result of the 2010 census. Depending on how this race and MA-10, which was looking good until earlier this week when Perry was blasted with bad publicity about a bust gone bad when he was a cop, it's hard to know what the districts will look like.
A much better indication of the outcome is the response by the major parties. They have their own internal polls which are typically pretty good.
Both the Pubs and Rats are pouring money into the race. Some big time Rats are coming to town to stump for Fwank ... at this late stage when their time and money are especially precious. That speaks volumes.
In other words, reading the signs and signals, Bawney Boy is in big twouble.
“among women he [Bielat] trails 54.7 to 30.2”
Please, someone PLEASE explain this to me.
Snot sucks. Yes, it was good that a “Republican” won the “Kennedy Seat”, but he still sucks; marginally better than the Maine Twins.
BTW, Bielat will win this. If signs are an indicator, Bielat has about a 10:1 advantage in the areas where Bwaney gets his $upport from.
Poll end date: January 13, 2010,
Poll result: Coakley(49) ahead of Brown(41) by 8.
Election date: Januray 19, 2010 (just 6 days later)
Election result: Coakley (47) lost to Brown(52) by 5 (the poll had Brown under-polled by 11, and Coakley over-polled by 2).
Poll end date: October 17, 2010,
Poll result: Frank(49) ahead of Bielat(37) by 12.
Election date: November 2, 2010 (16 days after the poll)
Possible Election result: Frank(47) loses to Bielat(48) by 1 (if this poll also has Bielat under-polled by 11, and Frank over-polled by 2).
The real question is if the GOP gets the majority, will Barney want to weather the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac investigations? Does he want his ex-lover called up to testify before a congressional committee? He may retire suddenly just because he doesn’t want to be a powerless back bencher.
There may be a special election before 2012.
But I am hopeful the Sean can pull it out. Remember the polls did not give Brown a shot either until the day before the election.
One reason Frank keeps getting reelected is because his congressional district is gerrymandered. See here:
Boston chicks think of themselves as Sex in the City girls. They all did the Barny Frank Fag hag thing.....
Boston chicks think of themselves as Sex in the City girls. They all dig the Barny Frank Fag hag thing.....
He might, but generally midterm elections are high water marks for challengers to incumbents. In a Presidential election year, especially the way 2012 is shaping up, the dynamic is very different. This is the year the 'Pubs have to do well, because whoever doesn't win this time around will probably be looking at a much tougher environment in 2012.
The Massholes in Bawney's district just make this one of those places where an established and entrenched 'Rat like Fwank are that much harder to dig out. There are just places like that, where the 'Rat seemingly has the seat for life if they want it. MD is that way, too. Look how long that old hag Mikulski has been hanging around. She'll probably die in office, the old bat.
I really believe Sean wins. Brown won Barney’s district. There are lot more Bielat signs than Barney signs here in the heart of pinko commie land. I walked with Sean during the Portuguese Feast Parade and that’s a stronghold of Dems, the people were very receptive. Barney will be retired. Many people who aren’t hardcore dems are not voting for Barney. They may be seeing the light.
Read the poll sample FIRST and then you will discover why this looks so good for Frank:
Poll Sample (only 400 people):
DEMOCRAT: 42 %
REPUBLICAN: 16 %
INDEPENDENT: 40.3 %
53 % WOMEN
Analysis: This is a sampling of mainly Democrat female voters from Massachusetts. What do you expect.
Please stop posting polls unless there are at least 15+ over 2 months from multiple sources. Anything less is pretty useless and grossly misleading.
You are SOOOOOOO right about that - unfortunately. You can spot my Boston FB "friends" by the sheer lunacy they post - they all want to be the 4 slore-dogs on that show. I really don't get it.
barney’s taking money from the banks who got bailouts after he promised not too his opponent should be making that an issue!
Great analysis, all the way around. With Sean, much will depend on if the Repubs get a majority in the House — and if they have the gonads to go after Fwank for his palpable malfeasance. The second, of course, is a massive if.
This is a tall order. It’s probably the best opportunity the GOP will have to beat Frank, ever.
don’t believe the polls
They want to be 4 gay men ?
They want to be the 4 trolls on SATC.
Let me summarize the 4 slores on SATC:
Kim Catrall was hot 30-35 years ago.
Kristin Davis is attractive, I’ll give her credit.
The dykey-looking one’s a dyke.
Sarah-Jessica-Coyote-Dog is a dog, even with the moles cut off her face.
So, 1 of the 4 is attractive, yet, some women hold them up as role models. Blah...
I lived in Newton for 22 years.
Frank losing is inconceivable.
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
“Please explain this to me”
OK. I lived there for 22 years. A very substantial number of those women hate men, hate masculinity, and hate Marines most of all.
There's not just one answer. There are the young single career girls in Boston who always vote for pro-abortion candidates. There are a lot of married liberal women in the wealthy suburbs. And then there are older women in the mill towns who would never vote for a Republican either, because of Social Security, the Great Depression, and ethnic tribalism: it's how they were brought up. Add them up and that's Barney's vote.
I wouldn’t place a bet on Frank losing this one, but he’s certainly heading in the wrong direction. The majority isn’t sold on voting to re-elect him. His lead is “double digit”, but it’s similar to the “double digit” leads held by Murkowski and Castle prior to them losing narrowly in their primaries - dwindling numbers willing to back them automatically and taking a look in the latter polls, and in this case, once again, down into the 40s so a majority of the jury is still out. They were very well known candidates vs. unknown challengers, and it may be the same as what it happening here to Frank...again, I wouldn’t be willing to bet money he’d lose given his district and its history, but based on these numbers, I also wouldn’t say his re-election is a done deal - something interesting could very well be happening here.
I guess they find it “empowering” how slutty they were.
I don’t know what kind of men they hooked up with but I’m assuming it wasn’t the last call types 3 of 4 would get in real life. ;d
I watched half an episode once, and Chris Noth was the object of desire for Sarah-Jessica-Springer-Spaniel, so yeah, the scags were apparently landing good looking guys...way out of their league.