KeyHouseRaces 23 October Update - We added AZ-07, IA-01, IA-02, MN-08 and NY-22 to the Master List

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 23 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[Mygirlsmom]

TEANAMI ON THE WAY! - Love it Freddd! Making it my new tagline.

[matthew fuller]

Thanks for all the hard work.

[Seattle Conservative]

Thanks so much for all of your hard work compiling these!! I’ve referred to them almost daily for quite a while and look forward to the new ones every week!!

I understand not adding races, but these are a couple of under the radar races in WA State to watch. They will probably remain Dim - but, it would be oh so sweet if they switched - - would probably mean there was a huge nation-wide tsunami!

As Paudio noted, Dicks’ race may be tightening (there’s a FR thread here:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2612971/posts

RCP has moved Larsen-Koster (WA-6) and Smith-Muri (WA-9) (you have this on your Tier 2 races) races to toss-ups:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2610315/posts?page=26#26

See post #26 on that thread “More Problems For Jay Inslee – Caught In A Lie After Ducking Local Medal of Honor Ceremony?”

Here’s one in OR to keep an eye on:
DeFazio v.s. Robinson (OR-4) - DeFazio has been in congress for many years and his internal polls from a couple of weeks ago shows he’s only leading by 6% (after having won reelection in 2008 with 82%)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2608210/posts

His opponent, Art Robinson, is a scientist, against the global warming theories, and has done a lot for home schooling. He totally slammed Rachel Maddow a few weeks ago - video is great! Video here for those who haven’t seen it:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/66944.html

154 posted on Sunday, October 10, 2010 9:28:23 AM by bray (A November to Remember)

[SamAdams76]

Add MA 06 John Tierney D v. Bill Hudak R I don’t know the polls, just the area, Hudak has a great shot at this seat.

I agree with that. Hudak is looking very good. Also, we should look at the MA 05 race, Jon Golnik (R) vs Nikki Tsongas (D). Golnik is running a very strong campaign and Tsongas is running on about three flat tires. Would not be surprised at all to see both Hudak and Gonick win their races. Add Bielat and Perry and we could well have four GOP congressmen in Massachusetts next week.♠

[smoothsailing]

We added 5 new Vulnerable Dems to our Master List...

WOO-HOO!!! Let the good times roll!!!!

Thanks, IP, keep it coming!!! :o)

[GailA]

6 of us canvased my neighborhood today for Charlotte Bergmann, we hit over 300 homes!

[InterceptPoint]

RCP has moved Larsen-Koster (WA-6) and Smith-Muri (WA-9) (you have this on your Tier 2 races) races to toss-ups.

We have WA-09 as Toss-Up on our Tier 2 list but I don't' see WA-06 anywhere on RCP.

[shempy]

I live in IA-1. I am not convinced this race is a toss-up. There are just too many old Democrats, teachers, and union goons. This is also the district that old nuns come to when it is about time for them to die, so we have a bunch of convents filled with addle-minded "social justice" nuns that further pollute the vote.

I suppose a Lange victory over Braley is possible, considering Jim Nussle held the district for years. But I don't want to get my hopes up. Either way, I will be voting a straight Republican ticket come hell or high water!

[stockpirate]

Lollar by 3%.....

[Seattle Conservative]

My sincere apologies.
Larsen-Koster is WA-02 (you have on your Tier-1 list)

Dicks is WA-6

At any rate, Larsen, Smith and Dicks are usually safe seats. Looks like they’ve all had to do a bit more campaigning and spend more $s than usual.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded normally.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	26
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29
24-Jul-10	203	209.25	215	3.37%	30
31-Jul-10	203	209.06	215	2.96%	30
07-Aug-10	203	209.15	215	3.11%	30
14-Aug-10	204	209.33	215	3.33%	30
21-Aug-10	204	209.86	216	4.47%	31
28-Aug-10	205	210.91	217	7.03%	32
04-Sep-10	206	211.88	218	10.45%	33
11-Sep-10	208	213.67	220	20.31%	35
18-Sep-10	208	214.1	220	23.14%	35
25-Sep-10	209	214.72	221	27.54%	36
02-Oct-10	210	216.44	222	41.34%	37
09-Oct-10	212	218.48	225	58.13%	39
16-Oct-10	215	220.78	227	75.42%	42
23-Oct-10	217	223.28	229	88.59%	44

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

This week, the polls cover 75% of the 106 races being tracked. 80 polls are being used out of 94 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 85%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
31-Jul-10	207	211.93	217	8.43%	33
07-Aug-10	205	210.66	216	4.51%	32
14-Aug-10	205	210.56	216	4.44%	32
21-Aug-10	208	212.88	218	11.83%	34
28-Aug-10	211	216.78	220	42.58%	38
04-Sep-10	213	217.53	222	50.40%	39
11-Sep-10	214	219.05	224	66.39%	40
18-Sep-10	214	218.54	223	62.30%	40
25-Sep-10	214	218.46	223	61.17%	39
02-Oct-10	217	220.83	225	83.86%	42
09-Oct-10	219	223.48	228	96.15%	44
16-Oct-10	222	225.93	230	99.33%	47
23-Oct-10	224	228.38	233	99.94%	49

And in the Senate...

Even though Alaska is safely Republican, polls show Lisa Murkowski closing in on Joe Miller. At this time, I'm still showing the race as still safely beyond the margin of error for Republicans. Carly Fiorina gained 1% on leader Barbara Boxer in California. In Nevada, Harry Reid gained 3% on leader Sharron Angle, closing the gap to 1%. In New Hampshire, Republican Kelly Ayotte continues to maintain her 7% lead over Paul Hodes. The West Virginia race tightened this week as Governor Joe Manchin closed the gap with John Raese by 3%. In Connecticut, Linda MacMahon inches closer to Richard Blumenthal, bring the race back within the margin of error. Also, Wisconsin moves back within the margin of error. Lastly, Ken Buck loses ground against Michael Bennet in Colorado, bringing this race within 2%.

• California 1: +1% (R -2%)
• Colorado 2: -3% (R +2%)
• Connecticut 1: +6% (R -5%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Illinois 2: No poll (R +4%)
• Nevada 2: -3% (R +1%)
• New Hampshire 1: +0% (R +7%)
• Washington 2: No poll (R +3%)
• West Virginia 1: -3% (R +3%)
• Wisconsin 1: -5% (R +7%) - moves back within the margin of error

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (41), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
17-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7
24-Jul-10	47	48.95	50	7.69%	7
31-Jul-10	47	48.18	50	1.29%	7
07-Aug-10	47	48.13	50	1.46%	7
14-Aug-10	47	48.46	50	2.92%	7
21-Aug-10	47	48.69	50	3.05%	7
28-Aug-10	47	48.86	50	5.88%	7
04-Sep-10	48	49.21	51	14.19%	8
11-Sep-10	49	50.08	52	37.67%	9
18-Sep-10	48	48.95	50	3.67%	7
25-Sep-10	47	48.35	49	0.30%	7
02-Oct-10	48	49.7	51	21.47%	8
09-Oct-10	50	50.55	51	58.69%	9
16-Oct-10	49	50.08	51	35.48%	9
23-Oct-10	48	49.7	51	21.70%	8

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

-PJ

[Free Vulcan]

It’s looking quite possible that all 5 seats in Iowa could be GOP after next week.

[EDINVA]

I’d love to see the 20th CD flip. ShulzWasserman makes me crazy to watch or listen to.

[1035rep]

“We added 5 new Vulnerable Dems to our Master List”

Bookmarked

[MissMagnolia]

...we have given up our one-time goal of holding our Master List to just 100 races. There are just too many Vulnerable Democrats surfacing unexpectedly for us to stick to that plan.

It's not over til it's over ..... but this is good to see.

[InterceptPoint]

I’ve updated KHR with the Political Junkie Too data.

[daler]

Give the guy a chance.

He's only had 36 years of on-the-job training, and pretty soon he's going to DELIVER on those promises he first made in 1974! (um, yes...also /s)

[Hush44]

Thank you for this great effort you & the others put together for us all. It is so very appreciated!

Big shout out to all of you who work on this!

As for my NY20, it is great to see the ‘experts’ avg ranking change over time and finally get to “Toss-up”. What we on the ground have known all along...is that this race is turnable.

Aside>
Dick Morris has 11 house races tagged for NY. Imagine the symbolism of that many blue NY-CDs turning RED.

A House Cleaning For New York
Dick Morris 10.22.2010
http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/a-house-cleaning-for-new-york/
A virtual purge of Democrats is quite possible, with as many as 11 seats changing hands.

~Kate