Real Clear Politics: 112th House - 222 GOP, 36 Toss Ups, 177 Democrats

Real Clear Politics ^ | October 24, 2010

[topher]

Battle for the House

Current House: 255 Democrats | 178 Republicans | 2 Vacancies

Projections October 24, 2010:

222 GOP, 36 Toss Ups, 177 Democrat

Link:

Battle for the House

Governor Races update (10/24/2010):

27 GOP, 8 Toss Ups, 15 Democrat

Link to Governor Races:

2010 Governor Races: Current Governors: 26 Democrats | 24 Republicans

Finally, the US Senate:

44 GOP, 8 Toss Ups, 48 Democrat

Link for US Senate Races:

Battle for the Senate: Current Senate: 59* Democrats | 41 Republicans

[TexasFreeper2009]

senate and governors races are state wide... while house seats are heavily gerrymandered (by federal law) to ensure that at least a few blacks are elected to congress.

Which means that a huge percentage of Obama supporters are concentrated into just a handful of districts nationwide.

Obama’s approval right now is only about 36% when the black racist vote is not included, which explains why the house numbers look so bad compared to the senate presently.

[Talf]

coming soon, the foreign policy president

[airborne]

We need to remember that this is just the beginning of the battle to take back America.

After the election, we need to hold all elected servants accountable, and work to find able conservatives for the next round of elections in 2 years.

We have just begun to fight!

[cherry]

absolutely.....I want us to win a good number this time but the work begins immediately after the election...

[oldbill]

Also makes you question a lot of the recent polls that supposedly show senate and governors races moving in the Dems favor

What you are seeing is a common ploy by pollsters that happens every election. As the election draws near, they have the polls close up, hopefully to within the "margin of error" (3-4%) so that if the outcome/winner is different than their polling numbers, they can preserve their credibility by claiming it was too close to call.

Remember, polling is their paycheck, and they won't get hired if their track record is lousy. So there is a premium to get the final results within that margin of error band so that their reputations are preserved.

[nathanbedford]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

United States Senate-pickups needed for takeover = 10

AR • CO • IL • IN • NV • ND • PA • WI- W.VA = 9

(chances for pickup of all of these states = 8 in 10 West Virginia being the least likely for the Republicans but Reese has just been given a lead by Rasmussen-the best pollster)

Republicans must pickup 1 out of the following 4 states:

CA -WA = 2

(chances for a pickup in California = 1 in 3 chances for a pickup in Washington = 1 in 4 these are conservative odds the Republican is moving up in Washington and Boxer cannot get above 45% the death knell for incumbents)

sub total = 11

DEL - CON = 2

(chances for pickup in Connecticut = 1 in 6

(chances for pickup in Delaware = 1 in 10

total = 13

My guess for a takeover: 50-50

(admittedly these odds are set down without the slightest concern for arithmetic but recent reports show Republicans doing well in the early voting and that leaves the independents to weigh in who are nearly 2 to 1 polling against the rats. I think it is normal to see a tightening in the run-up but that tightening to cease and the wave to break at the last minute for the wave party. The early voting indications support that theory.)

My guess as to pickups in the House = 65

[genghis]

puppies will win WAY more than 50% of the toss ups
75% is a better guess

[LS]

Yeah, but note the PA poll today that showed Toomey gaining eight points SINCE THE POLL STARTED and now with a solid, but not overwhelming, lead.

[randita]

Muhlenberg just released another poll (10/21-24) showing Toomey ahead 47-42. Their poll last week showing Sestak gaining ground caused a huge tizzy. Now we’re back where we should be.

[Ted Grant]

Seems to me a toss up means it is as likely to go GOP as it is to go dem. So I’ll stick with a conservative estimate for now.

[genghis]

historically
toss ups go to the anti incumbent 75%
this is going to be an election for the ages

[topher]

There has been movement today that is surprising.

Two safe Democrat Seats were changed to Likely Democrat seats. And, some other races (GOP) were changed from Leans GOP to Toss Ups.

The races are getting tighter and tighter.

Fair weather appears to be headed for most of the country on Tuesday, with the exception of Washington state (front may be moving through).

[Ted Grant]

historically
toss ups go to the anti incumbent 75%

I saw this over at NRO just now, looking at some analysis by Cook and Rothenberg predicting a 57 House seat pickup for the GOP:

What about the toss-ups? They break only slightly toward the winning party. In 2008, Cook rated 35 races as toss-ups; Democrats won 19 of them, or 54 percent. In 2006, he rated 39 races as toss-ups; Democrats won 22 of them, or 56 percent.

Rothenberg’s ratings are more complicated, but obtain nearly similar results. In 2008, he said 14 races were pure toss-ups; Democrats won seven of them. Democrats won nine of the 13 races labeled as tilting Democratic, and Republicans won all of toss-ups tilting their way. All together, Democrats won exactly half of the 32 toss-ups. In 2006, Democrats won ten of the 19 pure toss-ups, all of the races that were tilting Democratic, and one of the ten tilting Republican. Combine all the toss-ups and Democrats won 21 of 40, or 52.5 percent.

This makes sense to me, and is closer to the 50-50 tossup split that I figured. I don't know why you think to-ups go 75% for the anti-incumbent. It's just not true.