United States Senate-pickups needed for takeover = 10
AR • CO • IL • IN • NV • ND • PA • WI- W.VA = 9
(chances for pickup of all of these states = 8 in 10 West Virginia being the least likely for the Republicans but Reese has just been given a lead by Rasmussen-the best pollster)
Republicans must pickup 1 out of the following 4 states:
CA -WA = 2
(chances for a pickup in California = 1 in 3 chances for a pickup in Washington = 1 in 4 these are conservative odds the Republican is moving up in Washington and Boxer cannot get above 45% the death knell for incumbents)
sub total = 11
DEL - CON = 2
(chances for pickup in Connecticut = 1 in 6
(chances for pickup in Delaware = 1 in 10
total = 13
My guess for a takeover: 50-50
(admittedly these odds are set down without the slightest concern for arithmetic but recent reports show Republicans doing well in the early voting and that leaves the independents to weigh in who are nearly 2 to 1 polling against the rats. I think it is normal to see a tightening in the run-up but that tightening to cease and the wave to break at the last minute for the wave party. The early voting indications support that theory.)
My guess as to pickups in the House = 65
