Cook has basically said that an incumbent, in a close race..even if trailing, is listed as toss-up unless he/she has been indicted..which explains why he’s hedging on a lot of races...calling them toss-ups...any way of goign back to get his predictions the last week before 1994, and see which races he called toss-up back then, and how they turned out?
A lot of pundits are hedging, but that’s not the problem here...Let’s look at CA-20. It’s a staggering +10R (52-42)in the survey/usa poll on Oct 25th. All the pundits should rank that as a toss-up or better. BUT many still have him as dark blue. They haven’t updated their predictions yet. For example Sabato’s update is from the 21st. Thus KHR also lags.
You can use the Wayback Machine to see Cook's website content going back to 2000. Not all embedded links are guaranteed to work. Here is the Cook Political Report wayback link.
-PJ