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Well hiya Ken,

And I do have a moment.

First, an unusual thing going on here in the swamps this week. Don’t know what to make of it but I’ll throw it out there. We begin with that like the rest of the country, Delaware has many elections going on. Y’all know about the Christine O’Donnell (COD) /Coons race no doubt. And as I mentioned upthread, there’s the little known but very important House race...for good ole Mike Castle’s seat. Del only has one REP in America’s House and it is, as these things go, more powerful than Del senate seats. So Rep Urquhart, who I really like, is going against former Del loot-Gov...John Carney.

All this week the Democratic candidates have just, boom, not shown up for scheduled debates. It’s just the oddest thing. In the case of Coons, he just refuses to have any more debates with COD. John Carney was a no show at a recent debate and another local race involving Pete Schwartzkopf...yeah son of former Desert Storm General, Pete was a no show too. Pete’s a Dem., radical, right here in Sussex county and Sussex county ain’t Wilmington. The Sussex GOP, which DOES do stuff and IS Conservative, just for an oddity, is throwing everything to get this guy outta the hell Sussex county where the air is beautiful and life is good.

Don’t know what this means but everyone political round here is wondering what the heck ...? SCHEDULED debates...serious...just not showing up. Looks to me like some very orchestrated thing on the part of the Dems but I’m baffled. None of them going out in public...weird.

In the grid provided upthread, as I was corrected, it shows this seat leaning Dem. While I questioned that once informed, I tend to agree it’s probably leaning Dem.

For Delaware, let’s get those pesky statistics out of the way...is around 2/3 registered Dems against 1/3 registered pubs. There is a HUGE base of Indies here in Del, just to note. The Del population is a little less than 3/4 from up around Wilmington and the environs of Philadelphia. A little more than 25% of Delaware population comes from Kent and Sussex counties. Kent and Sussex counties consist of semi-rural, farm like abodes and are very conservative.

Given those numbers as I listed above, it’ll take some going against the grain to get a pub elected to either Senator or as Del. only Rep in the House. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle managed to win for some eight years as the Rep. Keeping in mind that RINO Mike Castle voted Dem on practically every issue and damn, I could win as Rep if I called myself a pub but voted Dem.

and yet it is that very odd scenario which is creating problems for the Dems as well as the pollsters as regards Delaware. Because for the past at least two elections, it really never mattered if the welfare class in and around Wilmington bothered to vote. Mike Castle was just fine with the Del. Dems. The Kent and Sussex county voters would trudge to the polls to hold their nose and vote for Castle to keep whatever ridiculous Dem nominated from winning. Joe Biden won since 1972 because...well he’s a known name. Delaware has few folks really BORN here. Folks move into Delaware to escape the oppressive property taxes of nearby NJ and Merryland and the like. The mean well but all they know at first is Biden and here’s a guy been around, got a nice smile...seems like a nice fellow. Well yeah he’s an idiot, but he’s OUR idiot.

Point of all this is that for many, many years most the only folks voting in Delaware were Conservatives, Republicans, Independents. Democrats didn’t have to vote much and a large percentage of that group just stayed home. The Dems weren’t moved to get out the vote, pay a pack of ciggies to get them to the polls. The rest of Del would carry the water, get out and vote, and in the end the Dem guy as desired would win.

As an aside, 2008 was an exception to this dynamic. The Dems in Delaware came out and pulled the levers for the OBama/Biden ticket cause a)they really liked Obama and b)adding Biden to the ticket was just whipped cream on the pie.

However, comes the midterms, and Obama’s not on the ticket, and with midterms being boring anyway, and no big deal of interest....the Dems have a big problem in little Delaware.

Cause go with me on this, the Kent and Sussex countians....yeah man they’ll sure come out to vote, like they do every election, but they’re NOT going to vote for either Dem Carney or Coons. I got a bridge to sell cheap anybody thinks they will.

So the Dems gotta get their people out to vote and folks, it ain’t gonna be easy. No Obama or Biden on the ticket, a really lackluster Coons midget nothing burger, an entrenched politico like John Carney....there’s not much worth losing some good sleep over to the big mass of Wilmington Dems that could overtake the statistically challenged Repubs in this race.

Finally, and thanks for indulging me but you did ask, I know that most of the upcoming elections depend on turnout. But Delaware is more dependent on turnout than any of the states I daresay. Delaware has a HUGE group of voters who never much had to bother with that voting thing.

I conclude that the upcoming Del Senate/House races will be close. I do know that Obama/Biden came to Delaware, not so much to move the base, but to meet with the mighty unions, which is a big force in this little state, to get out there and get those people to the polls.

It’s an intriguing scenario, caused by Delaware’s formerly politically uninformed population and the lack of need to get the Dems to the polls. The entire American population is infinitely more informed than before and yeah we’ve had plenty of Tea Parties in Delaware.

Everything’s changed this year and I suspect the polls are erratic and entirely undependable. Which is why no one really wants to go out on any limbs.

I do think a that “leaning Dem” designation is probably spot on.

I do NOT think that Delaware is a lock for the Democrats.