Dick Morris: 100 GOP-Seat Win in House Conceivable, Senate a Tossup

Newsmax ^ | Wednesday, 27 Oct 2010

[Persevero]

“How many other Freepers will be doing the same or watching the polls? “

I have volunteered; not gotten my assignments yet.

Making calls for Fiorina and walking precincts in the meantime.

[mcjordansc]

Hate to be overly optimistic where a 60 seat gain is a disappointment. I already know if the GOP gains nine seats in the Senate it will be reported as a victory for the Democrats.

[manic4organic]

Everyone please pour it on! I am working at the polls for my state rep every day I can for early voting and all day Tuesday.

[Longbow1969]

Of course, just a couple weeks ago, Dick was sure the GOP was going to take the Senate. Now it’s a “tossup.”

Morris' predictions were on the silly side, but he achieved his goal of getting people to watch him, buy his books and go to his website.

Now he will begin dialing back those ridiculous predictions to something more realistic so he can still say he was right.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

We shall see. I WANT to believe Morris. I really do.

I'm put in mind of the almanac editor who went to his weather predictor and said, "What's this? You are predicting snow on the fourth of july? That has never happened in recorded history!"

The writer replied, "No, and it probably won't happen this year either. But if it does, I'll be the durndest weather predictor who ever lived!"

Sure would be nice if Dick Morris hit it this time . . .

[BigSkyFreeper]

I think he’s pimpin’ a new book.

[meadsjn]

Dick Morris is right on this one, and even he is shortchanging the Republican potential for 2010 wins in the House and Senate. The only things stopping a near sweep from coast to coast by Republicans is (1) RINO pessimism and reluctance to be responsible leaders, and (2) massive Democrat voter fraud, and the reluctance of Republicans to effectively challenge it.

Between the 2006 and 2010 midterm elections, Democrats have lost support in every single demographic category, in every region, in every income, education, racial, and gender category.

For instance, the difference shown in the PEW Research table below is that the Democrats had D+9 in 2006 in the Northeast, but now have D+1, or a loss of eight points support in the Northeast from 2006. This difference is critical for any NE congressional district that went Democrat by less than eight points in 2006.

Usually, when a candidate is losing support in one demographic, they can alter their message to pick up votes in another demographic. This is not possible when all the demographics are showing losses for the Democrats. Their only hope is even more massive voter fraud, and some of that is already being reported. It still won't be enough.

IMNSHO, this is shaping up to be a bigger blowout than the 1894 midterm, when the Republicans picked up 130 seats.

Changes in the Midterm Landscape: November 2006 to October 2010
	Nov. 1-4, 2006			Oct. 13-18, 2010
	Vote Rep	Vote Dem	Adv	Vote Rep	Vote Dem	Adv
	%	%		%	%
All likely voters	43	47	D+4	50	40	R+10
Men	45	46	D+1	52	37	R+15
Women	41	48	D+7	49	43	R+6
18-49	44	48	D+4	50	40	R+10
50-64	44	45	D+1	50	41	R+9
65+	42	48	D+6	52	38	R+14
Ethnicity
White, non-Hisp.	49	42	R+7	56	34	R+22
Black, non-Hisp.	07	81	D+74	10	83	D+73
White men	52	41	R+11	56	33	R+23
White women	47	43	R+4	55	35	R+20
Education
College grad+	43	49	D+6	50	43	R+7
Some college	43	45	D+2	53	35	R+18
HS or less	44	46	D+2	49	41	R+8
Family income
$75,000 or more	50	43	R+7	54	36	R+18
$30,000-$74,999	49	44	R+5	52	40	R+12
Less than $30,000	32	62	D+30	39	55	D+16
Republican	92	04	R+88	95	01	R+94
Democrat	02	94	D+92	08	88	D+80
Independent	35	42	D+7	49	30	R+19
Religious Affiliation
Protestant	50	41	R+9	56	35	R+21
White evangelical	68	24	R+44	75	16	R+59
White mainline	45	45	Even	58	32	R+26
Catholic	43	48	D+5	52	40	R+12
White Catholic	48	43	R+5	53	37	R+16
Unaffiliated	20	71	D+51	37	52	D+15
Region
Northeast	40	49	D+9	44	45	D+1
Midwest	40	51	D+11	53	37	R+16
South	48	42	R+6	55	37	R+18
West	44	47	D+3	45	43	R+2

PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 13-18, 2010. Q10/10a. Based on likely voters. Likely voter estimates for 2010 based on a seven-question turnout scale.

[GonzoII]

"Dick Morris a Polling Prophet without peer."

This is his last or close to last prediction before next week, this must be his best one. I hope he's spot on!

[BigSkyFreeper]

So does this mean Obama will be sitting in the back seat for two more years?

Nope.  He'll use Executive Orders and the bureaucracy to pass legislation.  Without the need for Congress.  With Obama in the White House, Congress is irrelevant at this stage.  All this musical chair drama is just a distraction for what's to come in the next two years. 

Obama will not compromise nor will he be intimidated, and the GOP needs to get it into their skulls; Obama will not bow down to them like he does with the Saudi Prince.

[rushmom]

If the Republicans win seats in the 70-80 range, I don’t see how the Senate can be a tossup. And the Senate seems to be slipping away...IF YOU CAN BELIEVE WHAT IS IN THE MEDIA. Who knows?

[GonzoII]

Quite the stats!

[rushmom]

Rasmussen now has Mansion (D) up three in WV.

[library user]

Still can’t see the Republicans taking the Senate but, if they do, there will be partying well into the night!

Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so.

Source

[Logic n' Reason]

I said 55 and 8, but it’s pretty clear it’s going to be over 60, and possibly as high as 105. I think we’re stuck at eight seats in the Senate.

I love predictions....and I'm much much closer to yours than some of the "stratospheric" ones I've seen on FR.

So....
House = + 46 for Republicans
Senate = + 7 for Republicans

dem/lib/prog/pops will claim victory on the strenght of the fact that the wild predictions made by some on the far right never even came close to being actual or true.

Republican - the unique and seemingly genetic defect which causes them time and time again to "over-promise" and "under-deliver".

"Snatching defeat from the very jaws of victory!"

[Maine Mariner]

Yes but the Senate was always uncertain.
We really won’t know until late Tuesday or early Wednesday but I think a net gain of 8 seats to the Republicans.

There are going to be a lot of incumbent Demorat congressmen and congresswomen looking for work after this election.

[GonzoII]

"He'll use Executive Orders and the bureaucracy to pass legislation."

He'll pay in 2012 if he does and this will only mean more fodder for Palin and the Tea Party!

[Deagle]

Heh, sounds really good! Especially Delaware - that would deserve a bottle all its own...

[LS]

Well, I think if you look at the state-by-state polling, we’re both pretty low. Senate, maybe 7, maybe 9. But House? It’s looking like a real tidal wave, and if many races break right, it could easily go over 100.

[BigSkyFreeper]

If there’s still elections by 2012.

[Hotlanta Mike]

It’s odd - almost as if the Senate pickups we need will come from coattails in the House races - it’s usually the other way around, and from the President on down...
Predicted headline(s) for next Wednesday...

UNprecendented

Blowout

BIG change
________________________________________________

UNEXPECTEDLY...