Morning Jay: Special “Ultimate Predictions” Edition! (Election Day)

The Weekly Standard ^ | 11/2/2010 | Jay Cost

[mojito]

1. Intro. I have to say that I am of two minds about this midterm election. On the one hand, it is great to see the Republican party in resurgence. And not just in terms of raw politics: The Tea Party movement has given the GOP a sense of meaning and purpose in the domestic political debate that it has not really had since 1996 when Bill Clinton outfoxed the Republicans in the budget battle.

On the other hand, as somebody who makes a living discerning trendlines before they develop, this has been frustrating. I’m not going to beat around the bush, my friends: we are in uncharted water here. Consider:

(a) The generic ballot average at RealClearPolitics is predicting a Republican margin of 9.4 points. If that were to happen, it would be the largest Republican margin since 1946.

(b) The Gallup poll, historically the most accurate, is an outlier this cycle. What to make of this? If it is correct, and the margin is 15 points today, that would be the largest margin since 1928, when Herbert Hoover did this to Al Smith.

The political landscape has changed so much since the 1920s....So it’s fair to ask: how far back in time can we go to get a reasonable sense of what happens next? And if the Republican Party’s appeal now is geographically broader, what’s to say a 1928-style election isn't possible?

[mojito]

Some interesting predictions by a veteran poll watcher.

[ButThreeLeftsDo]

You Know The Drill
Click the Pic

Hey! FReepers!
Help Fill The Tank!
How About It? Huh?
It Ain't Askin' Too Much
Ya Know....

[mojito]

"Oh, one more thing. Whatever you do today, ignore any and all leaked exit polls. They're put out there with an agenda, which usually does not include making conservatives feel better. And they're not the most accurate data points in the world. Just ask President John F. Kerry!"

[SeekAndFind]

To make a long story short, Jay Cost predicts close to 75 seat pickup for Republicans in the House of Representatives and close to 9 seat pickup for the Senate.

In the governor races, the GOP will win in Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Democrats will win in Arkansas and Maryland. Florida is close, but his guess is that it goes Republican.

He then gives this final advise:

---

Now, stop reading the blogs and go vote!

Oh, one more thing. Whatever you do today, ignore any and all leaked exit polls. They’re put out there with an agenda, which usually does not include making conservatives feel better. And they’re not the most accurate data points in the world. Just ask President John F. Kerry!

[UCANSEE2]

"The Democratic Party has won. Republicans need not concern themselves with voting."

[DontTreadOnMe2009]

The Gallup poll, historically the most accurate, is an outlier this cycle. What to make of this? If it is correct, and the margin is 15 points today, that would be the largest margin since 1928

---

I have no problem with that !!!