Released Monday before Election WA-Sen 49-47 Murray - almost exact OH-Gov 48-44 Kasigh - actual 49.4-46.7 - almost exact NV-Sen 48-45 Angle - every public poll got this wrong WV-Sen 50-46 Manchin - nearly identical to PPP result (only other public poll), both slightly underestimated Manchin CO-Sen 50-46 Buck - every public poll in the final week had Buck leading CO-Gov 47-44-6 Hickenlooper - every public poll overestimated Tancredo vs Maes IL-Sen 46-42 Kirk - actual 48.2-46.3, right on target IL-Gov 44-38 Brady - same result as every other public poll, all underestimated the final result of 46.1-46.6 Quinn CT-Gov 48-46 Foley - very close to actual result of 49.0-49.5. No poll had Malloy up, one showed tie w 10% other/undec CT-Sen 53-46 Blumenthal - actual 54-43, right on target Released Sunday before Election NH-Gov 51-45 Lynch - actual 52.6-45.1, almost exact PA-Gov 52-43 Corbett - actual 54.5-45.5, almost exact VT-Gov 50-45 Shumlin - actual 49.4-47.9 Shumlin: poll biased toward Democrat Released Saturday before Election NH-Sen 56-41 Ayotte - actual 61-36, poll biased toward Democrat OH-Sen 57-33 Portman - actual 57.3-39.0, slightly underestimating D in a blowout AZ-Sen 52-32 McCain - actual 59-35, slightly underestimating R in a blowout AR-Gov 60-38 Beebe - actual 64.6-33.6, slightly underestimating D in a blowout
I’m not trying to be difficult, but don’t understand why you aren’t using the numbers straight from Rasmussen:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/final_rasmussen_poll_results_2010_senate_elections
For instance, this link says the final poll had Rossi up 1, while the actual is Murray by 3. That’s overestimating the Republican by 4, and you say they are “almost exact”.
This link says the final poll had Blumenthal up 7, the actual was 11, also overestimating the Republican by 4, and you say “right on target”.