Palin did not miscalculate in her home state. Her candidate won the primary with margin to spare. Unfortunately, the incumbent decided to ignore those results and take on the party’s selected candidate in the general. Miller would have won easily without the write-in campaign. Who knows, he may still win.
There are limits to which the independent and even GOP electorate is going to be pushed in so-called Blue states — witness the senatorial losses in NV, CO, CT, and DE — and near disaster in PA, which shouldn’t have even been close. Lifelong conservatives I know refused to vote for COD; others did. Fairly or unfairly, people feel the same way about Palin. Palin is polarizing to millions of Americans. Has she been treated like crap by the MSM? Yes. Is this fair? No. Will this change? Never.
With the Supreme Court at risk for a generation in 2012, there are plenty of other conservatives who are a better general election bet than Sarah Palin.
If Palin wins the GOP nomination, I will vote for her. But I’d rather her serve as the Secretary of Energy in a future Republican Administration.