“One should remember, two years ago, people thought that DemocRATS would make gains this year.”
This article understates the precarious situation of Democrat Senators up in 2012. Tester, Webb and Ben Nelson will not survive. Conrad, McCaskill and Sherrod Brown are unlikely to survive (and I think that Conrad will retire rather than face the state AG). Stabenow, Bill Nelson and Herb Kohl are as likely to lose as win (and I think that Kohl will retire). Menendez, Cantwell, Manchin and Casey are vulnerable. Klobuchar, Bingaman, Gillibrand, Akaka, Whitehouse and Carper are potentially vulnerable. Lieberman and Sanders potentially face three-way contests that may allow the Republican to win (maybe Foley and Dubie can’t get 50%, but they can get 38% in a three-person race). So I count only two safe Democrat Senate seats among the 23 that are up in 2012: Dianne Feinstein’s seat in CA and Ben Cardin’s seat in MD.
On the GOP side, Scott Brown will probably not survive, John Ensign would probably lose if he ran for reelection (but the GOP would have better than even odds of winning the seat should he retire), and Snowe’s seat could go Democrat whether or not Snowe loses the primary. But that’s it: the other 7 GOP-held seats are safely Republican.
So the GOP has an excellent chance of picking up 6-12 net seats in 2012. And 2014 is just as promising for the GOP as 2012, with Democrat seats held by Begich, Landrieu, Hagan, Franken, the two Udalls, Rockefeller (who may retire), Harkin (ditto), Tim Johnson (ditto), Baucus (ditto), Coons, Pryor, Lautenberg (who will likely retire), Levin (ditto), Shaheen, Merkley and Mark Warner all being either gone, vulnerable or potentially vulnerable, while the only vulnerable or potentially vulnerable GOP seat is Collins’s in ME (the other GOP-held seats are located in AL, GA, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX and WY, which won’t be even thinking of voting Democrat again for awhile).
And thanks to GOP victories in state races las Tuesday, giving the party control of redistricting in more multi-seat states than ever before, the House will likely stay Republican until at least 2022.
So if we elect a GOP president in 2012, he should have a GOP House for his entire term and a filibuster-proof Senate during at least 2015 and 2016 (although it would be a challenge to keep a 60+ seat Senate after the 2016 elections).
I think that Senators Sherod Brown, Debbie Stabenow, Ben Nelson, and Bill Nelson will win. In 2006, they got 56%, 57%, 64%, and 61%, respectively. Conrad and Kohl will choose to retire, and Republicans will win. Tester, Webb, and McCaskill will lose. I agree that Scott Brown will lose. Republicans will have a net gain of four seats.
Brown will NOT lose. He has a $6 million warchest, and high approval ratings (55% approval to 18% disapproval).
BTTT
No to Foley vs Lieberman.
McMahon for me. And I cannot see the DEM losing unless Lieberman is the GOP nominee. A 3-way race keeps the libs united and splits the GOP vote. The Indies in CT are GOP voters and many would go for JOE.
Very good analysis. Brown may yet win; I wouldn’t count him out.
How much bearing do you think the presidential primary and resulting candidates will have on the Senate race results in 2012?
Obama will not generate the grassroots excitement he got in 2008. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the economic situation, he may have lost independent voters for good. Someone besides Obama may generate renewed excitement for Democrats and Indies, notoriously fickle, may decide the new person deserves a shot.
On the GOP side, it’s vital that the candidate be one that is supported by the Tea Party and like-minded conservatives. But it’s also vital that the person be one of impeccable integrity with a lengthy executive and leadership experience resume. No more Barack Hussein Obamas-m..m..m..
2014 will be another mid-term and like 2010 will probably be a referendum on the party in power which will hopefully be the GOP. So they better not blow it.