Posted on 11/09/2010 6:51:13 PM PST by Calif Conservative
GOP leads 4 of 6 House seats still undecided
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
McNerney(D) +628 vs. Harmer(R)
CA-20
Vidak(R) +27 vs. Costa (D)
ILL-8
Walsh(R) +553 vs. Bean (D)
KY-6
Chandler (D) +600 vs. Barr (R)
NY-1
Altschuler (R) vs. Bishop (D)
Altschuler may have 390-vote lead due to tabulation error
NY-25
Buerkle (R) + 659 vs. Maffei (D)
CA-11, CA-20 and KY-6 are looking pretty tough to pull off.
IL-08, NY-01 and NY-25 are looking pretty good.
KY-06 looks exactly the same as it did on election night. Has any info come in regarding the number of absentees outstanding?
KY has no more ballots to count. They will do a re-canvass, but this rarely changes more than 100 votes.
I compared the partisan split of the absentee ballots in NY to the overall districts.
NY-25 absentees are over 10% more Republican than the district as a whole. Buerkle is in good shape.
NY-1 absentees are slightly more Democratic than the district as a whole. Altschuler is likely to see his lead shrink. This will be very close.
I had very limited news access last week. I see I didn’t miss as much as I thought.
This is a Barr messing from Nov. 5
Recanvass on Friday
Dear Friends,
We have come a long way. When we started this campaign, we were unknown, underfunded and underestimated. As of this afternoon, the Secretary of State reports that our campaign is only down 649 votes out of over 239,000 cast. Yesterday, I sent a letter to the Secretary of State requesting a routine recanvass of all votes cast in the Sixth Congressional District election. The recanvass will consist of double checking the results from each voting machine plus all absentee ballots.
My staff is working around the clock to ensure that all legal votes were counted. I owe it to all of you who have worked so hard to make sure all votes in the Sixth District election were counted correctly. If you have any questions, please contact us at info@andybarrforcongress.com.
Regardless of the outcome of the recanvass, I want to thank all of you for the kind words of support Carol and I have received over the past few days. I promise to continue to hold government accountable, whether it is serving you in Congress or as a citizen of Central Kentucky.
what is the current pickup count?
Thanks. When I checked the SOS’s election results page yesterday, everything was zeroed out. There were no numbers, as though there’d been no election.
Still crossing my fingers for Vidak then.
Kings - 69.9 (V) to 30.1 (C).
Kern - 62.1 (C) to 37.9 (V).
Fresno - 60.6 (C) to 39.4 (V).
Unfortunately you can see where statistically, the absentees would tend to favor Costa because Kings is a much smaller population base. Maybe during redistricting most of Fresno and Kern will be moved out of Costa's district and make Kings the county he has to compete in.
And I recall noticing that Fresno Co. had a low turnout, and I think Kern was a disappointment, too.
If our guy loses, conservatives in those counties who didn’t vote should be rebuked.
How do you know what party a absentee vote belongs to?
The absentee ballot breakdown by party is in these links
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/252793/who-trying-contact-absentee-voters-ny-25-updated
I thought I recently heard 61, but please don't quote me. If you hear, would you please ping me?
My prediction number before the election was 65. I'm dying to know how close I came, LOL!
I agree. Thee is no good reason that conservatives should not have had a near 100 per cent turn out to vote against the little twit.
Real Clear Politics update from 11-10-10 (morning)
GOP +61 seats
429 of 435 seats decided
6 seats undecided (all held by Democrats)
GOP leads 4 of the 6
Dem leads 2 of the 6
If GOP gets all 4 in which they lead, then it would be +65
The net gain # should not fall below +60 (depending on long-shot recount demands from losing Democrats)
The net gain # can’t exceed +67
VERY IMPORTANT NOTE:
***** A HUGE caveat is NY-1*****
Supposedly, the Demo was up by thousands of votes, but the “discovery” of a huge machine screw up that was unfairly in favor of the Democrat subtracted about 4,000 votes from Bishop, creating a huge swing in the lead to the Republican.
All of this left the GOP challenger leading by “nearly 400” according to news media accounts. I could never find a story that gave the precise #. So I arbitrarily said the GOP is +390(since I have no idea of what “nearly 400” means in this particular MSM parlance.)
Update: actually the number is +392 for Altshuler — so my guess of +390 was fairly decent ;)
Here’s the top of a story from a local news source on Long Island — which cribbed their story from Politco, but of course I would like to avoid giving Politico.com any web traffic
*****
With the initial re-canvassing of the polling machines now completed Republican Randy Altschuler has pulled ahead of Tim Bishop in the First Congressional District race by 392 votes, according to a Suffolk County Board of Elections source.
A machine error had mistakenly given Bishop an additional 4,000 votes. The new count gives Altschuler a lead of nearly 400 votes.
*****
hope that helps
-George
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