I don't know if your assessment is accurate or not, but there's a memory that has always haunted me:
I recall the day the newly-elected Obama went to his first national security briefing. Up to that point he was his usual arrogant, narcissistic, smartass self, Mr Cool, grinning and sauntering. When he came out of the briefing he had to give a press conference about something else--I can't recall what--and he was a changed man. Gray in the face, unable to concentrate on what he was supposed to say, distracted, upset. Something he heard in that briefing terrified him.
“...and he was a changed man. Gray in the face, unable to concentrate on what he was supposed to say, distracted, upset. Something he heard in that briefing terrified him.”
No doubt.
The real Deal, no SS##T, intelligence estimate.
NOT something most folks are privy to.