Oh I believe there is a real fear that NK might do something crazy and use an exercise as an excuse to lash out again.
But what kind of a message is it giving NK when exercises are announced but then repeatedly called off at the last moments clearly due to fear of a NK reaction? I think it gives a message of indecision and a lack of nerve that will only make NK feel more secure and rewarded for their actions.
I agree the on again/off again drills along the NLL probably aren’t sending the right message to the NORKs.
However, I think, overall, the US/ROK/Japan message to China and the DPRK in the wake of this attack has been pretty good. Sure a heck of a lot better than running back to the 6 party talks and paying off Kim with rice like we have in the past.
I can agree that the indecision on the ROKs part vis-a-vi the live fire drills along the NLL may make the DPRK feel somewhat more “secure”, but in light of the other steps the US/ROK/Japan have took, I don’t see where the DPRK is being “rewarded” . . . except if you mean by “rewarded” that they have not been on the receiving end of some TLAMs or JDAMs.