Asia's Changing Balance of Power

The Wall Street Journal ^ | DECEMBER 9, 2010

[sukhoi-30mki]

Asia's Changing Balance of Power

Russia's Sukhoi-35 sale to China requires a U.S. response..

Reports that Russia intends to sell China 48 of its most advanced fighter jets, the Sukhoi-35, are one more confirmation of a dangerous trend for the balance of power in East Asia. It's not just that China is expanding the number of planes, missiles, surface ships and submarines it can use to project power in the region. Rising economic and technological capabilities are also pushing Moscow into making deals for state-of-the-art weaponry. This requires that the U.S. pay more attention to the deterrent capability of its own forces and those of its allies.

For roughly the last decade, Moscow was not prepared to sell the most advanced systems to China, and for very good reasons. As the Journal reported earlier this week, in the 1990s Beijing bought fighters and missiles from cash-strapped Moscow and then reverse-engineered them. Now Chinese factories compete with the Russians in the lower end of the market.

But the closer you get to the leading edge of technology, the harder it is to make a copy that functions like the real thing. The Chinese have remained dependent on the Russians for some key parts. They still stumbled when it came to designing complex systems from scratch. So they faced a choice: Put in the time and resources to continue developing indigenous technology, with no guarantee when this effort would pay off, or agree to buy the Russian products, with presumably better intellectual-property protection this time around.

The Russians face a similar conundrum of how to maintain their technological lead. Chinese

[sukhoi-30mki]

The SU-35BM

[diogenes ghost]

48 fighters.....enough to completely overwhelm our forward-based F-35 Joint Strike Fighter forces.

[GeronL]

Obama doesn’t care about our allies

[spetznaz]

I am VERY surprised the Russians would sell the 35BM to China. Totally surprised. Sure, with the PakFa they will still possess a qualitative edge over anything China has, but all the same. Also, China has a history of making its own copies (licensed and unlicensed), and just recently tried (and apparently largely failed) to make a copy of the SU-33. If I was Putin or Medvedev I would definitely not be too happy about giving Russia's number ONE near-peer adversary access to one of the best Gen 4.5+ aircraft, as well as giving them access to technology that the Chinese will copy and reproduce. I know I have over-simplified things, but the principle still remains that this is not wise - even with the PakFa. If Russia has to sell the 35, then it would be best with a mechanical radar (maybe an upgraded variant of what was in the 30MKK, not the proposed 35BM's AESA), and normal engines (not the work being done on supercruise capable powerplants). The optical sensors should also be 30MKK based.

I wonder how India is taking this. Also, does India plan to upgrade its 30MKIs (e.g. with AESA)?

[Constantine XI Palaeologus]

I’m surprised too, especially given that the PAK FA’s supposed to leverage the avionics used in the Su-35. Despite the modest amount of orders for the RuAF (48 IIRC), I’ve expected the expected the Su-35 to comprise the bulk of new-production fighters in the RuAF for the next couple decades—the F-35 to the PAK FA’s F-22, if you will. I see the Indians moving away from the Russian in recent years, so the Russians need to make up sales somewhere, but to find them offering their top-line wares to the Chinese is somewhat suspicious.

[sukhoi-30mki]

The offer of the SU-35 is not surprising for both economic and strategic reasons. Russian arms exports are somewhat stagnant with both India and China looking elsewhere or inward and chances of other big sales appearing rather distant.

I assume that there is something of a ‘quid pro quo’ involved in the SU-35 offer as a means to prevent China from exporting the J-11 series and undertaking further development of the J-15 (SU-33 clone) with Ukrainian help. The J-11 with its fully indigenous systems, including engines can be legally exported as a Chinese product. In that way the SU-35 is not too high a price to pay especially as the Chicoms are already working on their own 5-gen aircraft. I don’t think China would be interested if the SU-35 didn’t come with the IRBIS radar and the 117S engine.

About India, I don’t see why it should really be surprised either. There is talk of undertaking an MLU of the SU-30MKI including installation a version of the ZHUK-AE AESA radar but nothing concrete.