Random thoughts:
1. Nebraska’s Ben Nelson.
-Good chance for a GOP pickup, unless Nelson can sell himself as a conservative Democrat in 2012 back home. Right now, I’d guess a 60% chance of a GOP pickup.
3. Ohio’s Sherrod Brown.
-Love to see Brown sent home. Ultra-liberal.
4. Missouri’s Claire McCaskill.
-My gut instinct is, this is as close to a lock as any GOP race can be. Run a decent candidate, and McCaskill is toast.
6. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin.
-I think Manchin wins re-election.
7. Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey.
-PA has broken my heart before, but I’m hoping on this one.
9. Virginia’s Jim Webb.
-Allen can take this guy.
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My Darkhorse picks:
Stabenow-MI Run Engler or some other high recognition GOP candidate, and I think the GOP can pull off the upset. Detroit’s corruption is always a factor, but I don’t think it will be as strong as in past elections. I might be dead wrong, but right now, I’d give 40-45% chance of beating her in 2012.
Feinstein - CA. If DiFi runs, she’ll win big. The question is, will she retire? She’s given no indications of doing so, but she’ll be 79 in 2012. If she chooses to retire, there could be a small window of opportunity for a GOP candidate. Very long odds here, but a guy can hope, yes?
Feinstein would probably win. Then with a Republican Senate and maybe some changes in assignments, she might wait about a yearn to retire so Brown could name a Democrat to replace her. Feinstein’s seat needs to be won outright by a Republican, and that is the proverbial mountain to climb.
Brown got in because he was running against Dewine. If the Republicans run another RINO Brown could win again but that is the only way.
Brown got in because he was running against Dewine. If the Republicans run another RINO Brown could win again but that is the only way.
I agree with you on Pa. To me, Pa, Ne, and WV are all in the same boat. I believe those states are becoming more conservative and I think we can win them. But I wont believe it until I see it. How many times was Murtha dead in the water in a growing conservative area of Pa, just to keep getting reelected. Same with the WV Sens. As for Ne (and Nelson of Fl and Conrad), these states just seem to enjoy sending the bums back over throwing them out. I really hope we get it.
Im in Tx, so I know I wont vote for Hutch. I will vote against in the primary, but if she wins there, will abstain. The GOP candidate will win any way, so at least I can feel good about it.
As for Mi, is there any chance of the conservatives who lost the Gov primary running here, maybe like Hoekstra? I dont know much about them or Mi politics, but Hoekstra seems to have name recognition in Mi.
Good list. Agree with most of your random thoughts, I just remain unconvinced that Webb will seek re-election. Doesnt seem to me that he likes the job all that much.