[Zakeet]

With the understanding that I am not going to pay Rupert Murdoch to read this article and have therefore no way to gauge the viability of any arguments they may have made in support of their statements, my initial impression of their forecast of newspaper ad sales is "no way in hell" will it come anywhere close to their forecast.

Consider the following:

• Notice the downward trend leading up to the current periods.

• Then note that 2010 was an exceptional year due to an election fought in large part at the local level. It resulted in a huge unsustainable windfall. Or, in other words, it was a one time aberration which prevented a much larger decline.

• Then ask, "what's caused the market for newspaper ads to change?" Circulation rapidly reversed its precipitous decline? New and exciting content being added which will significantly increase readership? Employment picking up and companies abandoning Monster.com? Real estate picking up and companies abandoning online listing services? Craigslist gone out of business?

Bottom Line: This is a fluff piece. The conclusion is right, but the writer is trying to soften the blow to his employer and to his audience.

Or in other words, it's going to be much, much worse than he lets on.

[abb]

The concept of day-old news printed on dead trees and then hand-delivered to individual addresses just does not work in this day and time of instant global communications available to everyone.

150 years ago telegrams were the last word in instant communications. Not so much anymore.

‘What hath God wrought.’

[abb]

http://www.emarketer.com/blog/index.php/web-passes-newspapers-ad-spending-time/
The Web Passes Newspapers in Ad Spending For First Time

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-20/u-s-web-ads-exceed-newspaper-print-ads-in-2010-emarketer-says.html
U.S. Web Advertising Exceeds Newspaper Print Ads in 2010, eMarketer Says