$24.5 Trillion In US National Debt, $144 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities In... 2015

Zero Hedge ^ | December 20, 2010 | Tyler Durden

[Zakeet]

By now everyone has seen and played with the US debt clock via usdebtclock.org whereby anyone who so wishes, can find every little detail about America's current sad fiscal state. The fact that America currently has just under $14 trilllion in national debt should be no surprise to anyone who professes to having an even modest interest in the state of the US economy. Yet a new feature on the "debt clock", namely one which extrapolates future debt at current rates of advancement (instead of one based on the always completely inaccurate CBO estimates), and looks at US debt in the year 2015 will probably make many stop dead in the their tracks. If anyone thought that $14 trillion in 2010 debt is bad, just wait until we hit $24.5 trillion in total US national debt in 2015. And it gets even more surreal: total US Unfunded Liabilities are estimated at $144 trillion, roughly $1.2 million per taxpayer... Was that a pin dropping?

As Zero Hedge has long been predicting, we anticipate roughly $2 trillion in incremental debt per year. Surprisingly we are not far too off from where the "debt clock" sees US leverage in 5 years. At an estimated $24.5 trillion in federal debt, our $2 trillion per year run rate is spot on. Another thing that is spot on: our prediction that the US will need not one but two debt ceiling increases in 2011. And probably 6-8 over the next 5 years.

Some other observations for the US economy in 2015 simply assuming current conditions persist:

• Federal spending will be $3.3 trillion per year, and with federal revenue of $2.3 trillion (this number will be reduced as it also assumes $731 billion in payroll tax, a number which will likely be indefinitely reduced) the result is a budget deficit of $983.7 billion.
• Annual Medicare/Medicaid expenses will be just over $1 trillion
• US population: 326.8 million
• US workforce 131.3 million (and declining)
• Officially unemployed: 19.4 million
• Actual unemployed: 22.3 million
• State/Federal employees: 17.9 million
• People on SSN and other retirees: 72.6 million

And the most critical data:

• Food stamp recipients: 89.7 million
• Foreclosures: 2 million
• Social Security Liability: $19 trillion
• Medicare Liability: $99 trillion
• Total US Unfunded Liabilities: $144 trillion
• Gross Debt to GDP: 143%

Should one of the bolded predictions hit, the travails of Greek and Irish bondholders will be nothing compared to what those unlucky enough to be in possession of US debt in 2015 will have to go through.

[blam]

"I believe we’ve long passed the event horizon where the entire earning potential of every able bodied American (read theft potential of the govt.) couldn’t pay down just the interest on the debt. There are dark times ahead."

I agree. There's no peacful way back from here.

[VanDeKoik]

“# US population: 326.8 million
# US workforce 131.3 million (and declining) “

Are you f’ing kidding me?!?!

What the hell are these pigs doing with there time?!

[Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!]

Is ObamaCare included in the 144 trillion?

[DeaconRed]

60 Minutes had a segment last night on State & cities unfunded pensions etc.
We are doomed. . . .

[Sprite518]

Well from that point it’s about another 20 minutes or so. This is just his opinion, but I think he is correct.

It hurts me to see what is happening. Naturally I want the best, but I think it’s time to prepare for the worst. To be frank I don’t even want to look at the news anymore. The news just get worst everyday! It’s almost as if the election did not happen. At any rate, I’ll keep looking because I have to stay informed. However, I think keep it limited. After all I want to enjoy my life.

[Notary Sojac]

Not to worry, once we have elected Her Grizzliness all these problems will instantly disappear.

[April Lexington]

How much are total US Unfunded Assets?

Good point. We may have to sell our public lands and other US holdings to the debtors at some point.

[April Lexington]

I agree. There's no peaceful way back from here.

Well, we could always sell our public lands to the Chinese!

[Deo volente]

We're talking interest payments alone of over a trillion dollars each year, and that's probably a conservative estimate. The country cannot sustain this, no way.

[Lurker]

How much are total US Unfunded Assets?

Pray tell.

[LibsRJerks]

Well, she’s the only one right now to offer any common sense solutions to this mess — such as utilizing our own natural resources to produce our own energy, to rely on ourselves, our famlies and not the government for everything, to get government the h%ll out of the way and let the free markets actually function like they should ...

What other brilliant suggestions do you have to offer at this point??

[Toddsterpatriot]

We may have to sell our public lands and other US holdings to the debtors at some point.

Those are assets, not unfunded assets.

[Toddsterpatriot]

If Unfunded Liabilities are $144 trillion, Unfunded Assets are $144 trillion.

[Lurker]

If Unfunded Liabilities are $144 trillion, Unfunded Assets are $144 trillion.

That's some pretty slick accounting type stuff there, Scooter.

How'd you come up with that figure where something can be an asset and a liability at the very same time. When did GAAP allow that?

[April Lexington]

What is an “unfunded” asset? Thanks.

[NeoCaveman]

How much are total US Unfunded Assets?

I forget, what is the market price of two barrells of pixie dust and 5 unicorns?

[NeoCaveman]

So you think the US dollar is safe, the federal government is all of sudden going to exercise fiscal responsibility, and we will not collapse?

That which can not be paid back, won't.

[April Lexington]

The Federal Reserve can be considered to have created unfunded assets by buying treasuries and holding the same on its balance sheet.

[Toddsterpatriot]

The other side of the balance sheet from the unfunded liability.

[Toddsterpatriot]

How'd you come up with that figure where something can be an asset and a liability at the very same time.

I promise to pay my wife $1 billion in 10 years. I can't afford that, I'm doomed. On the bright side, my wife is going to be a billionaire in 10 years.