I’m thinking more like 5 years.
The number of people that subscibe to cable TV/satellite has already peaked. That number is already declining.
Internet ready TVs (which are just now hitting the market) will be the death knell for Cable TV. The technical barrier to dump cable has been too high for most people, but not anymore. As people discover how much is available over the internet they’ll be viewing cable less and less, and eventually ask the obvious: is it worth paying for cable anymore?
I’m thinking it will take about 5 years for internet ready TVs and boxes (like google’s) to get into enough of the market to cause cable providers serious losses.
Cable providers aren’t where the issues are coming from. It’s the cable channels that are dictating the terms of how channels are packaged for delivery to us.
And of course most folks with high speed internet are getting it from their cable companies. So in many ways the market won’t change that much even if it changes dramatically.