The Direction of Turkey’s Foreign Policy and Strategic Partnerships (Michael Rubin)

Euro-Atlantic Quarterly ^ | Jan. 3, 2011 | Michael Rubin

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For much of his first term in office, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pursued a balancing act: He sought to reinvigorate ties to the Islamic world while, committing simultaneously committing Turkey to the European Union accession process. After winning reelection in 2007, however, Erdoğan veered Turkish foreign policy further toward the Islamic world.

Turkey’s European ambitions fell by the wayside, into the realm of lip service only. Turkey’s September 2010 referendum marked another milestone. While the poll centered on constitutional reform, the size of Erdoğan’s victory imbued him with new confidence. In its wake, he has cast aside any pretense of compromise and balance. No longer does Erdoğan even pretend to look West; Erdoğan now guides Turkey to the East.

In the Middle East, Erdoğan seeks not to mediate, but to lead. According to diplomatic cables exposed by Wikileaks, American diplomats assess that he viscerally hates Israel not on political but rather on religious grounds. While tension between Turkey and Israel is now the rule rather than the exception, Erdoğan’s strategy has been proactive rather than reactive. Many Western journalists assumed the prime minister’s attack on Israeli President Shimon Peres during the 2009 World Economic Forum in Davos was spontaneous, but Turks report that Istanbul, a city controlled by the AKP, had inexplicably announced that the metro would remain open until 4 a.m. This enabled AKP supporters alerted by text message and carrying Palestinian flags to greet Erdoğan upon his return shortly after midnight.