For Want Of Pakistani Enlightenment, Afghanistan Will Be Lost

Family Security Matters ^ | January 17, 2011 | Lt. Colonel James Zumwalt, USMC (ret)

[captjanaway]

The concept of “causality” involves the inter-relationship of events. One event—i.e., the cause—can trigger a second—i.e., the effect—which can become the triggering event/cause for a third, etc. The proverbial rhyme “For Want of a Nail” underscores this theme: For want of a nail to shoe a horse’s hoof, the horse was unavailable for its knight to ride; thus the knight was unable to go to battle; thus the battle was lost; thus, ultimately, the kingdom fell. Nowhere is causality more complex than the equation for US success in Afghanistan.

This equation involves numerous variables—resolution of which lies outside Afghanistan’s borders and direct US control. Everything right could happen inside Afghanistan but, due to these outside variables, stability still would not prevail. These variables will play out in Pakistan. Following the US defeat of the Taliban and al-Qaeda forces in Afghanistan in 2001, the militants moved across the border into the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), located in northwest Pakistan. FATA has remained a safe haven for the militants ever since. Success in Afghanistan clearly turns—as recognized in a recent US strategy review—on denying the enemy continuing access there.

[Roccus]

The problem is not Afghanistan. It is not Pakistan. It is not Iran and it is not Syria. The problem is islam and unless and until western civilization realizes this, it is in grave peril.

[caww]

You cannot change a nations culture apart from changing their hearts and mindset...Islam destroys both.

[Senator John Blutarski]

This article misses an important point, which is that US Afghan policy has taken a badly errant course. The original intent of the American intervention into Afghanistan was to punish, disrupt and, if possible, eradicate Al Qaeda in retaliation for 9/11. With the exception of complete eradication, the effort was a monumental success. We should have declared victory and left the area. Unfortunately, at that point, some geniuses in DC decided to press their luck into regions of truly fanciful geo-political imagineering and advance the strategy from simple punitive expedition to the creation of an Afghan client nation state friendly to US wishes. Afghanistan is not a nation. It is an isolated, harsh and difficult geographical region populated by mutually and eternally antagonistic tribes and clans of truly mediaeval nature. The likelihood of any outsider imposing a modern nation state model upon the Afghanis is even more remote than the region in which they live. To blame the failure of this policy upon lack of Pakistani cooperation can only be viewed as either foolish or disingenuous. Pakistan itself has only the most tenuous claim upon actual nationhood, with an internal political structure that occasionally approaches something that mimics actual functionality, but more normall serves as an arena for the advancement of corruption, blood feud, and extremism. That having been said, never in the entire history of Pakistan has its western tribal border region EVER been under anything more than titular control by the Pakistani government - a fact made evident by even a cursory glance at a map of Pakistan. For American policy makers to expect Pakistan to suddenly establish at American behest a degree of control over this autonomous region that they have never had either the national will or resources to do for themselves strains credulity and reveals American policy as unrealistic, arrogant and amateur.

My opinion, of course.

[gandalftb]

Good post.

There will not be a rule of law, by a central government, in Afghanistan, in our lifetimes. There can only be order created by a force of arms. We have decided, by national policy, that we will be that force of arms.

We have decided to create order by suppressing AQ and the Pakistan-based Taliban, both of which are largely done except for the Haqqani's.

What remains is to suppress the Afghan Taliban/drug lords and that is being done but can never be fully completed.

We will establish military order but never peace until the Pakistan Army/ISI and Taliban choose to leave Afghanistan alone. As long as the drug trade enriches Pakistani coffers that will never happen and is a far stronger driver than jihadist/sharia driven Islam.

None of Afghanistan's borders were chosen by Afghans, it is a land of left-overs. Land that none of its neighbors wanted.

A core strategy of bin Laden's assault against the West was to draw us into Afghanistan. Paying, in blood and treasure, to prove that bin Laden was wrong will be the great test of will for America for about 10 years.

All conflict is economic and the real fight will be held in the halls of Congress.

And, until the opium/heroin drug business is eradicated we will be paying for both sides of the fight.