Reagan said any number of things the press perceived as gaffs during the 1980 campaign. He was ridiculed and pilloried relentlessly. Books were written about what a fool he was — “Ronald Reagan's Reign of Error,” etc. Reagan was advertised as a terribly weak candidate, a patsy tailor made for Carter. He was the nominee of a divided party with a “moderate” Republican running as a third party candidate because his appeal was supposed to be so narrow. The left was uniformly of the opinion that Reagan had embarrassed himself in the debates. He won anyway because Carter was a failure.
What was the difference between Reagan and Goldwater? Was it that Goldwater was a poor campaigner and Reagan was a good one? Hardly. “Extremism in the pursuit of liberty is no vice” is among the best phrases ever deployed by an American politician. It fell flat, along with the rest of the Goldwater campaign, because in 1964 America was still in the grip of a progressive consensus left over from the 1930’s. We weren't ready for an alternative. By 1980 the progressive consensus had broken down. The smart guys had failed, comprehensively. It wasn't just stagflation or the hostage crisis or even the combination. The left had promised that it would make everything work smoothly and everything was falling apart.
Every election with an incumbent President running is a referendum on the incumbent. Reagan won in 1980 because he convinced most people that he was a plausible President and Carter, having been weighed in the balance and found wanting, no longer was. When the President fails the challenger has a low bar to clear. When he doesn't the challenger's bar is out of reach.
Anybody who can win the Republican nomination will easily clear the plausible president bar when the time comes, whatever the polls say now, just as Reagan did. Trying to pick the most electable candidate is a fool's game. Electability will depend on circumstances beyond anyone’s control.
Obama is looking at a perfect storm of inflation, low growth, high unemployment and diminishing American influence around a very dangerous world. When people next give any thought to whether they want him in the White House, most are likely to conclude that they don't. Until they think about that question asking them what they think about it will not yield any useful information.
Support the candidate that you think would make the best leader for the conservative movement, the Republican Party and the country. Electability isn't worth another thought.
Probably the usual 30% hard-core liberal left. My guess is that almost all 'Pubs and a sizable majority of independents thought Reagan did okay. I thought his "Are you better of today than you were four years ago? Is America more respected around the world today than it was four years ago?" was an absolutely brilliant stroke, and it devastated any arguments Carter and the 'rats could have offered.
He won anyway because Carter was a failure.
No question about that. Will Obama be perceived likewise in two years? I guess we'll see.