Posted on 03/08/2011 1:02:36 AM PST by jerusalemjudy
The policy documents published over the last year by the Obama administration indicate that it believes in the efficacy of traditional Cold War deterrence as the remedy to the challenge of rogue states acquiring nuclear weapons. Another assumption is that the Iranian regime is "rational" and hence deterrable.
But the cultural propensity of a people toward "rationality" does not determine the behavior of their autocratic leadership. Furthermore, both Sunni and Shiite traditions of Jihad view the willingness to challenge superior force as an exemplary deed. In Shiite Islam, this is augmented by the idealization of suffering and martyrdom.
Failure to prevent Iran from nearing the nuclear threshold will undoubtedly intensify the drive of other states in the region for nuclear weapons. Given weak command and control structures in the region, nuclear weapons may filter down to quasi-states (such as Kurdistan or the Palestinian Authority), terrorist organizations, and rival ethnic groups.
The countries of the region will probably be more predisposed than the Cold War protagonists to brandish their nuclear weapons not only rhetorically but through nuclear alerts or nuclear tests, leading to situations of multilateral nuclear escalation that will not be mitigated by Cold War-type hotlines.
In addition, the absence of a credible second-strike capability may well strengthen the tendency to opt for a first strike.
(Excerpt) Read more at jcpa.org ...
No. MAD had a basis in rational thought. There is no rational thought in a Theocracy.
Let’s just nuke em now and move on!
No is right. When they have built enough atomic bombs they will attack, and not just Israel. At least Russia loved their children, the same can not be said of Iran.
The proficy of the 12th imam makes the relogous leadership, and achmanutajob, extremely dangerous. Their belief is that by causing global suffering the 12 imam will reture ussuring in a global califate. I have no doubt they will give a few nukes to terrorists for use against the west and then send 2 or 3 to israel. martyring their entire population would only be a bounus for them. Remember imanutujob, purchased 500,000 plastic white keys to allah, so that old men and impaverised children could be duped into mine clearing martyr operations after the dogs, horses and camels figured out that they needed to run away.
The proficy of the 12th imam makes the relogous leadership, and achmanutajob, extremely dangerous. Their belief is that by causing global suffering the 12 imam will reture ussuring in a global califate. I have no doubt they will give a few nukes to terrorists for use against the west and then send 2 or 3 to israel. martyring their entire population would only be a bounus for them. Remember imanutujob, purchased 500,000 plastic white keys to allah, so that old men and impaverised children could be duped into mine clearing martyr operations after the dogs, horses and camels figured out that they needed to run away.
“Can Cold War Deterrence Apply to Nuclear Iran?”
Do chickens have lips?
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