This is rather ominous: Morgan Stanley halts Libya trade “Most estimates suggest around half of the country’s 1.6 million barrels per day of oil production capacity has been suspended due to clashes between government forces and rebels. Some trade sources expect other oil companies to follow the bank’s lead and halt oil trade with Libya, effectively halting exports to the international market. “Players won’t be able to buy Libyan crude even if it’s there. It won’t matter if they are producing or not,” said a crude oil trader. Austrian energy group OMV said today it was still getting oil from Libya despite severe output disruptions. “
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article247424.ece
I know a Bulgarian gentleman who once managed a cement plant in Libya. If you ask him his initial reaction is “Oh, my God! What a horrible country!”. The way he describes it, the place was only operational about half the time due to shoddy, worn out equipment and a slacker workforce. I suspect that is also the case with their oil production most of the time, but for some reason that is never reflected in the trading price.