Don't know, Unfortunately like any other election it would depend on the mushy middle.
Despite how the left paints us, Conservatives are color blind and as long as the candidate can unite the fiscal and social factions of the party we would all be behind him/her regardless of color.
Liberals no matter what would paint that candidate as an Uncle Tom and not vote for him/her anyhow.
That leaves the middle, which who knows, maybe by then American Idol and Celebrity Dance Stars may be canceled and then who knows what they will remember /forget about the Obama administration.