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Your numbers are about right for the next 5 years.
And about 10,000 up to 2020 to provide air defense/training.

Until the PM issued his gag-order last year,
The ISF leadership was consistent in describing the plan:

Phase 1 [2006-2010] Tactical independence.
This is internal security only.

Phase 2 [2011-2015] Operational independence.
This is handing internal security to police primacy while shifting the IMoD services [IA/IQAF/IQN/IQM] to external defense and overwatch of the MoI [IP/FP/OP/DBE/FPS].

Phase 3 [2016-2020] Strategic independence.
This is the ISF standing on its own. The long pole in this is air defense. Iraq’s only air defense now is the USAF. They have yet to buy their first jet trainer – let alone fighters…

This is what the uniformed ISF leadership based its plans on. The 2012 date was pure politics ignoring military requirements...

"Iraq’s only air defense now is the USAF. They have yet to buy their first jet trainer – let alone fighters…

Have you seen reports on which way they're leaning as far as jets they want to go with? Have they made any of those decisions yet?

"The 2012 date was pure politics ignoring military requirements..."

And Barry likes to claim that the Republicans are playing politics. This guys a joke. And the only one who didn't get it was the code pink left who actually believed him on his promise.