Isn't that always the case?
I think it’s still the same downturn.
(BTW - I thought this was a La Nina story, but found it interesting anyway).
I know that there are FReepers out there that understand this stuff. More importantly, what does one do with cash if that is the long position in ones portfolio?
This is all pretty dry.
That the index has returned to the historic norm, again if I'm reading the graph correctly, in the face of another spike in fuel costs, says to me that business is going wanting. Whether that's due to oversupply of ships, which is touched upon in the article, or it's due to falling demand, which should be the case given the recent setbacks in the west as well as China pulling back, or if it's due to some combination of the above, is not clear.
Despite apparent past reliability, I don't think this is as solid a leading indicator as it's being made out to be, as a result. The world economy has been distorted almost beyond recognition in the past three years. It may mean something. It may not. It may mean something that is outside of current understanding, too, along the lines of Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns.”
I’ve been following the BDI for a year. It is a very reliable forecast of what is coming. Not perfect. But reliable.
The VIX on the other hand...I used to follow that and now realize it is worthless. It no longer predicts volatility. It simply reflects what has already happened in the markets. I don’t even bother with it any more.
Over 30 black swan events listed one month ago, most now in play:
Silver: Revisiting the Silver Bear Black Swans
Many came true and / or are still in play.
It's funnier to listen / watch the original cartoon that this came from:
The difficulty I have with the chart is that we are now at a low point. A high point was visited just before a huge downturn in the stock market. If we were about to face another big fat downturn soon, one would expect a higher point on the chart for the present, no? Somebody help me out here.