Obama Approval At Lowest Level Ever In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds


April 28, 2011 - Obama Approval At Lowest Level Ever In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men, Women Split On Expanded Self-Protection

Word format President Barack Obama's job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 42 - 53 percent, an all-time low and a major drop from his 51 - 44 percent approval February 17, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Pennsylvania voters say 52 - 42 percent he does not deserve a second term, his worst showing on that measure also. In a mythical matchup, he gets 40 percent to an unnamed Republican challenger's 41 percent in the 2012 presidential race.
Pennsylvania voters support 53 - 39 percent a proposed law giving citizens the ability to use lethal force in self-defense in any public place if they feel their life is in danger, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
President Obama, who carried Pennsylvania 55 - 44 percent in the 2008 election, is underwater mostly because of his deterioration among independent voters, who disapprove of his performance 57 - 37 percent, compared to 50 - 46 percent approval in February. His 89 - 9 percent disapproval among Republicans is up from 80 - 15 percent disapproval in February. Democrats back him 76 - 18 percent, compared to 81 - 14 percent in February.
One reason might be his policy on Libya with 68 percent, including 65 percent of Democrats, saying the United States should not be involved there compared to 27 percent who think the Obama policy is the right course.
Independent voters say 56 - 37 percent that Obama does not deserve a second term and back an unnamed Republican challenger over the president by a smaller 36 - 29 percent margin.
"President Barack Obama's re-election team has work to do in the Keystone State," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Although Pennsylvania has traditionally been a swing state, the size of his 2008 margin gave many observers the idea that it would not be a heavily contested state."
"It's still 18 months until Election Day 2012, but these numbers are not going to make the White House happy," Brown said.
"Whether President Obama's decline stems from rising gasoline prices, continued unhappiness with the economy overall, the war in Afghanistan and now the involvement in Libya, he can take solace from his ability to run a dead heat with a generic Republican despite his current standing with the Pennsylvania public. Perhaps this says as much about the popular view of the Republican field."
The overall majority support for expanding the "castle doctrine" of self-defense hides a large gender gap, with 63 percent of men and only 45 percent of women backing the change. The political division is also substantial, with 68 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of independent voters in favor, and 54 percent of Democrats opposed.
Gun-owners support the measure 68 - 24 percent.
Pennsylvania voters are split as 48 percent say it is more important to protect the rights of citizens to own guns, while 47 percent say it is more important to control gun ownership. The gender split shows 58 percent of men saying protecting gun rights is more important while 56 percent of women say controlling gun ownership is more important. All voters say 64 - 28 percent that if more people carry guns, streets would be more dangerous. Gun-owners split 45 - 46 percent on whether streets would be safer or more dangerous.
Pennsylvania's two U.S. senators have almost identical approval ratings: 44 - 26 percent for Sen. Bob Casey Jr., the Democrat, and 43 - 25 percent for Sen. Pat Toomey, the Republican.
Meanwhile, support for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate in Pennsylvania, as voters say 64 - 30 percent that the United States should not be involved there. In February, voters opposed U.S. involvement 52 - 40 percent. In July of 2010, they backed the policy 48 - 45 percent.
From April 19 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,366 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 42% 9% 76% 37% 35% 48% 47% Disapprove 53 89 18 57 60 47 47 DK/NA 5 3 7 6 5 5 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 39% 71% 35% 49% 42% 28% 34% Disapprove 55 25 58 49 54 66 60 DK/NA 6 4 7 3 4 6 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 14 May 13 May 04 Apr 28 2011 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 Approve 42 51 44 46 46 66 42 Disapprove 53 44 43 49 48 29 53 DK/NA 5 5 13 5 6 5 5
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 44% 33% 61% 39% 43% 45% 52% Disapprove 26 37 14 27 29 23 20 DK/NA 30 30 25 33 28 32 28 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 50% 43% 38% 44% 45% 50% 43% Disapprove 29 15 32 30 25 21 26 DK/NA 21 42 30 25 30 29 32
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Casey Jr. is handling his job as United States Senator?
APPROVE....... High Low Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 13 May 13 May 28 Dec 16 2011 2011 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 Approve 44 44 39 48 47 56 39 Disapprove 26 24 29 29 30 21 29 DK/NA 30 31 32 23 23 23 32
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Approve 43% 58% 31% 44% 44% 43% 45% Disapprove 25 13 37 26 27 24 27 DK/NA 31 29 33 30 29 33 28 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Approve 44% 47% 46% 44% 43% 42% 41% Disapprove 27 22 25 29 26 23 25 DK/NA 29 31 30 27 31 36 34
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pat Toomey is handling his job as United States Senator?
Apr 28 Feb 17 2011 2011 Approve 43 41 Disapprove 25 21 DK/NA 31 39
5. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Obama 40% 4% 78% 29% 33% 45% 47% Republican 41 84 9 36 45 37 34 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 13 8 11 23 16 12 14 DK/NA 6 3 3 12 6 6 4 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Obama 43% 71% 31% 46% 38% 28% 27% Republican 42 18 45 34 38 51 50 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 5 20 13 15 16 15 DK/NA 6 6 4 7 8 5 7
TREND: If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate?
Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2010 Obama 40 45 41 Republican 41 39 37 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 13 11 14 DK/NA 6 5 8
6. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes/deserves 42% 6% 77% 37% 35% 48% 45% No/does not 52 91 16 56 60 46 48 DK/NA 6 3 7 7 5 6 8 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/deserves 45% 71% 33% 48% 43% 24% 33% No/does not 51 22 60 45 52 72 61 DK/NA 4 7 7 6 5 4 6
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Apr 28 Feb 17 Jul 14 2011 2011 2010 Yes/deserves 42 48 42 No/does not 52 45 48 DK/NA 6 8 10
7. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Casey 46% 13% 81% 40% 41% 50% 57% Republican 34 72 6 31 39 31 28 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 8 5 13 8 9 9 DK/NA 11 8 8 16 11 11 5 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Casey 46% 71% 36% 46% 43% 48% 39% Republican 36 15 44 32 35 37 39 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 6 4 10 12 9 9 9 DK/NA 12 11 10 10 12 6 13
TREND: If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bob Casey Jr. the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate?
Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2010 Casey 46 45 43 Republican 34 35 35 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 9 9 11 DK/NA 11 11 11
8. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator, do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Yes/deserves 48% 27% 73% 43% 46% 51% 56% No/Does not 31 51 11 31 36 26 27 DK/NA 21 21 15 26 18 23 17 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Yes/deserves 46% 69% 40% 51% 42% 48% 44% No/Does not 36 17 31 34 27 30 34 DK/NA 18 14 29 15 32 22 22
TREND: Do you feel that Bob Casey Jr. deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2010 Yes/deserves 48 46 40 No/Does not 31 28 33 DK/NA 21 26 27
9. Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Tom Corbett - A) I like Tom Corbett as a person and I also like most of his policies B) I like Tom Corbett as a person but I don't like most of his policies C) I don't like Tom Corbett as a person but I do like most of his policies D) I don't like Tom Corbett as a person and I also don't like most of his policies
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Person/Policies 34% 54% 19% 33% 41% 28% 30% Person/Not policies 25 20 29 25 23 26 28 Policies/Not person 5 5 3 8 6 4 3 Not Pol/Not person 22 9 37 18 17 26 26 DK/NA 14 12 12 16 13 15 13 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Person/Policies 39% 28% 33% 31% 33% 36% 37% Person/Not policies 32 23 29 24 25 21 23 Policies/Not person 4 1 3 11 2 5 5 Not Pol/Not person 18 33 23 23 19 20 20 DK/NA 8 16 12 12 21 18 15
10. Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Barack Obama - A) I like Barack Obama as a person and I also like most of his policies B) I like Barack Obama as a person but I don't like most of his policies C) I don't like Barack Obama as a person but I do like most of his policies D) I don't like Barack Obama as a person and I also don't like most of his policies
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Person/Policies 40% 5% 75% 34% 32% 47% 43% Person/Not policies 30 42 14 34 35 25 27 Policies/Not person 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 Not Pol/Not person 24 48 5 24 25 23 22 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 5 3 6 Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl Person/Policies 42% 69% 34% 46% 44% 22% 30% Person/Not policies 31 19 27 26 28 35 36 Policies/Not person 1 - 3 6 1 6 1 Not Pol/Not person 25 8 30 19 22 33 28 DK/NA 2 4 7 3 5 3 5
27. What do you think is more important, to protect the right of Americans to own guns or to control gun ownership?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Protect rights 48% 69% 29% 49% 58% 39% 54% Control ownership 47 28 66 44 35 56 41 DK/NA 5 3 5 7 7 5 6 OWN GUN Q28 HrdAlot/Some Yes No CastleDocQ29 Protect rights 68% 32% 57% Control ownership 28 62 38 DK/NA 4 6 5
28. Do you or does anyone in your house own a gun, or not?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Yes 43% 57% 32% 43% 52% 35% 46% No 54 40 66 53 45 62 51 DK/NA 3 2 2 4 3 2 2
29. The state House and Senate have each approved a measure that would expand Pennsylvania's castle doctrine, allowing citizens to use lethal force in self-defense in any public place if they feel their life or safety is in danger. How much have you heard or read about this measure that would expand Pennsylvania's castle doctrine? A lot, some, not much, or nothing at all?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds A lot 10% 12% 7% 11% 13% 7% 13% Some 24 24 20 29 29 20 23 Not much 27 27 29 23 24 29 27 Nothing at all 38 35 42 36 33 43 37 DK/NA 1 1 2 - - 2 1 OWN GUN Q28 Yes No A lot 13% 7% Some 31 18 Not much 26 28 Nothing at all 29 46 DK/NA - 2
30. Supporters say this expansion measure is a way to strengthen law-abiding citizens' rights to defend themselves no matter where they are. Critics say this expanded ability to use deadly force will lead to more violence on Pennsylvania streets. Do you support or oppose expanding Pennsylvania's castle doctrine, to allow citizens to use deadly force in self-defense in any public place if they feel their life or safety is in danger?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds Support 53% 68% 39% 56% 63% 45% 61% Oppose 39 24 54 36 30 46 34 DK/NA 8 7 7 8 6 9 6 OWN GUN Q28 HrdAlot/Some Yes No CastleDocQ29 Support 68% 41% 69% Oppose 24 51 27 DK/NA 8 8 4
31. If most people carried guns, do you think the streets would be more safe or more dangerous?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHolds More safe 28% 42% 14% 29% 40% 19% 30% More dangerous 64 50 80 62 52 74 63 DK/NA 8 8 6 9 8 8 7 OWN GUN Q28 HrdAlot/Some Yes No CastleDocQ29 More safe 45% 15% 42% More dangerous 46 78 51 DK/NA 9 7 7
32. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Right thing 30% 36% 26% 29% 36% 25% 30% Shld not be invl 64 60 72 62 58 70 66 DK/NA 6 3 3 9 7 5 4
TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 Jul 14 2011 2011 2010 2010 Right thing 30 40 38 48 Shld not be invl 64 52 56 45 DK/NA 6 9 6 7
33. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by using military force in Libya now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Libya now?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Right thing 27% 25% 31% 23% 32% 23% 30% Shld not be invl 68 71 65 72 64 72 66 DK/NA 5 4 4 5 4 5 4
34. Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
Union Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom HsHlds Repeal it 52% 76% 24% 59% 55% 49% 49% Let it stand 40 17 66 35 38 41 44 DK/NA 8 7 11 6 7 10 7
TREND: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
Apr 28 Feb 17 Dec 16 2011 2011 2010 Repeal it 52 48 45 Let it stand 40 42 45 DK/NA 8 10 10

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