Replies

RE: And how do you know that? Has she called you up and told you?

EVIDENCE IS ALL I HAVE, If I don’t see it, why should I conclude that she has one? I don’t go by the word “Perhaps”.
If you’re serious about being POTUS, you cannot ignore Iowa.

With no formal political operation in Iowa, Palin’s campaign ( if there ever will be one ) right now is in the hands of a California lawyer and “tea party” supporter who has anointed himself her unofficial Iowa state director, and a retired potato chip salesman who is trying to coalesce support for her online. They know each other, but neither is officially connected to SarahPAC, her national political operation.

Palin has been seen in other place, India, Israel, New York, California, Oklahoma and, most recently, Wisconsin. But not Iowa, the state that usually make or break a POTUS candidate.

But then, what does that have to do with Tina Fey?

EVIDENCE IS ALL I HAVE, If I don’t see it, why should I conclude that she has one

An old rule of thumb when evaluating research: the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

If one wants to understand Sarah Palin, conventional wisdom doesn't help much. I suspect she is comfortable with where she is, and with what the future holds.

You’re making a whole slew of assumptions based on sheer ignorance of what’s going on in her growing grassroots organization.

If you’re serious about being POTUS, you cannot ignore Iowa.

It is May, 2011. Reagan announced his candidacies in November, in both 1975 and 1979.

Now, you might say that times and primary schedules, and the importance of the Iowa primary changed since then. Indeed it has.

What is just as sure is that new "rules" are being shaped for 2012. Changes in delegate allotment, primary schedule, McCain-Feingold repeal, the candidate field itself, all of that, change the texture of this upcoming race.

In 1976, Jerry Brown and Frank Church blew what could have been competitive challenges to Jimmy Carter. They were playing by 1968 and 1972 rules. Only Carter saw the emerging importance of Iowa in providing an opportunity to break from the pack. Carter came in second behind UNCOMMITTED. In those days, Favorite Sons like Byrd and Daley would run in their home states to control blocs of delegates. Dear gone days. It was foolish for Jerry Brown to run in '76 as if it were '68. It would be just as foolish for Mitt Romney to run in 2012 as if it were 2004.

Iowa is the make-it state for the Mike Huckabee who wants to be seen as the alternative to an undesirable front-runner. The candidate who does not yet have the star power or financial resources to make it through a long primary run without some early notoriety.

Is it important for Sarah Palin to do well in Iowa. Yes. Should she be criss-crossing the state right now? Not necessarily.

Right now, the chatter is that Huck and Romney, or maybe Trump, are front-runners. This would be bad for Palin if she didn't have the confidence to hold fire until she sees the white of the enemies' eyes. Make them move first. MOST candidates do not have the luxury of holding their fire. She does.

We all know that Iowa is not about the handful of delegates one leaves the state with after pulling a 27% plurality in a caucus. It is all about perception. Romney finished ahead of McCain in Iowa, but the then-moribund McCain campaign performed "above expectations." (To his credit, McCain was the only serious candidate against Ethanol subsidies.) His third place finish propelled him to a win in New Hampshire. Romney's second place position sealed his defeat in the same, despite a vastly superior war chest and staff, and comparatively friendly treatment on conservative radio. By not pushing Iowa too hard, Palin may be allowing lowered expectations, where a place or show equals a win.

The same people who say now that Palin should be barnstorming Iowa are the same ones who thought she should take some time off to bone up on foreign policy and details of other national issues.

Palin is playing for 2012, not 2008. She has already established the ability to raise funds and fill arenas. Like Reagan, she can announce closer to the primary dates. Pawlenty and those guys cannot.

As far as criss-cossing the state, she can wait to see who the field will be. Ifd Huckabee is in, she plays it differently than if he isn't. Like anybody else, Iowans are more impressed with someone who comes in December than in June.

Rush Limbaugh stated the other day that consultants are paid to remold a candidate into something that can win an election. Sarah Palin's need for consultants may not be the same as that of a Daniels or a Pawlenty ... and certainly not of a Romney.

If Sarah Palin is serious about running for POTUS, she will be serious about Iowa, at the right time.