I’ve heard it said that one of the factors for going with the European platform, besides technical superiority in the high-altitude and desert terrain tests, is the thwarting of European weapons sales to China - which they were testing the waters of, lately.
You are 100% right.
Some quick points. For one, while I agree the F/A-18E/F would have been a good choice if chosen (not better than the Rafale or Eurofighter, but not worse), the F-16 would have been a mistake of the highest order (with only a selection of the MiG-35 being greater). The F-16 is a plane that has a great record (although arguments have been made that its opponents were not necessarily 'competent'), but it is an airframe that a) has reached the extreme limits of its capability and thus offers no growth, b) is in use by India's second greatest nation-threat (Pakistan) who know it in and out, and c) offers no superlative solution against India's foremost nation-threat (China) which is coming out with increasingly sophisticated weaponry. The argument that the F-16 is 'proven' is very true, and it has a great record ...but that record has been against the likes of Iraq and Bosnia, and not against the likes of Pakistan (which already has F-16s) and especially China (which has significant quantative and currently qualitative advantages against India). India selecting the F-16 would have been a strategic error of the highest magnitude.
The F-18, especially the avionics suite (considering its AESA radar is far more proven than the one in the F-16 offered to India, which is only in use with the Block 60s sold to the UAE), and the possibility of getting the Growler, would have made a good choice ...especially considering the MMRCA is meant to have good air-to-mud capabilities, which the SHornet is great at in the strike role. However, both the Rafale and the Eurofighter (especially the Rafale by a good margin) also have air-to-mud capabilities, and YET also have air-to-air capabilities that are second only to the F-22 (when the F-35, SU-35 and T-50 start coming out in full production numbers that will change, but for now they are second only to the Raptor). That is extremely important for a nation that would be facing swarms of Chinese J-10s, J-11s and who knows what else, while at the same time facing Pakistani F-16s and FC-10s on the other side of the country. Every single aircraft has to be able to carry far more than its weight ...the SU-30MKIs must be able to take out ground targets even though they are meant to be India's premier air-to-air fighter (which is why the Sukhois are being outfitted with the Brahmos supersonic cruise missile). The MMRCAs must be able to engage and defeat any Pakistani or Chinese (especially Chinese, considering the quantitative edge the Chinese have) fighter, even though the MMRCA were meant to be primarily strike fighters (I am certain the inclusion of the Meteor BVRAAM, which is a ramjet air-to-air missile that has been stated to be 3-times as effective as the AMRAAM did significantly help out the two planes against the F-18). India's needs are quite unique, considering that it's next door neighbors include a nation that is slated to be the next superpower, and another that is a Jihadist hot-spot. They cannot afford to get a plane that is simply good enough.
Finally, on the relations with the United States, in the past 5 years India has made many billions of Dollars worth of purchases from the US. Jet fighter engines, anti-submarine planes, transport planes, etc ...this is the main reason that Boeing and Lockheed did not contest the decision against them. They have made a lot of money in India, and are slated to make much more. If the US would toss out India because they did not win ONE contest, when they have won virtually EVERY other contest, would be quite weak.
Anyways, long and short of it is that if India was only worried about Pakistan, then even the F-16 would have been good enough. It would have been more advanced than the Pakistani F-16, especially considering the avionics (the Pakistani F-16s do not have AESA radars) ....however that advantage would not have lasted more than 7 years considering that there are after-market AESA radars coming to market for the F-16 (specifically, the RACR and SABR radars), meaning that in less than a decade (and before the India's have taken full delivery of all the F-16s, and learned how to use them fully) the Pakistanis would also have AESA-equipped F-16s. Considering that the US gave Pakistan AMRAAM missiles, what advantage would India have against AESA F-16s with AMRAAMs if they are also flying AESA F-16s with AMRAAMs. It would come down to tactics, situational awareness and pilot skill ...but no country wants a fair fight. But, if India was ok with a fair fight, the F-16 could have worked against Pakistan.
However, when it comes to China, the F-16 would not have worked. Already the Chinese J-10 is compared to earlier block F-16s, with upgrades to the J-10 meant to bring it up to later block F-16s (maybe to Block 50/52 level, which is still not at the Block 60+ level the Indian Vipers would have been at, but close enough to make the large numbers China could throw against India make up for the difference). Then there is the J-11, which is basically the Sino-version of the SU-30. Then there are hundreds of SU-30MKKs. Then there is the J-15, which is the Sino SU-33. Finally add thousands of lesser capable planes that, while not particularly effective, would still need to be shot down. Sorry, but while the F-16 was great against Iraq, against China it would be a dog. Throw in China's SAM network, and it becomes a dead dog. It is one thing for a F-16 flowin in USAF colors, supported by US assets such as AWACS and so forth, and backed by F-15s and F-22s flying top cover, with Wild Weasels, Prowlers and Growlers soft/hard killing SAM missile defenses, and with hundreds of Tomahawk missiles and B-2 Stealth Bomber strikes having taken out the hardest defenses .....then the F-16 has a different tune. It is another thing when the nation is India, facing off against a Jihadist country on one side PLUS an up-and-coming Superpower that is as advanced (and more so) than India itself on the other.
India made the best decision for India. Not for the US, or Sweden, or Russia ....but for India. As for the political angle, there are already so many deals done with the US that it really doesn't matter (as can be seen by Lockmart and B not making a big fuss over it). And anyways, it would be quite ironic if the US government, after giving Pakistan billions of Dollars every year even as that government hides Osama and sponsors terror, would shut off India because the Indians decided to use their hard-earned Rupees to buy another plane, and toss out India even though Delhi is a key counter-point to China's rise. That would require a truly idiotic American government, and while the financial support of Pakistan since 9/11 can make one question that, I do not think that the bottom of the dunce-barrel is being scraped just yet. Virtually every single defence contract apart from the MMRCA has gone to the US, and has brought more money to the US than the value of the MMRCA deal ...if the loss of this one deal means India and the US can't be friends, then I doubt that was a friendship that would have been good for India anyways. Particularly considering the stakes as China grows stronger and Pakistan grows crazier.
If there was reflexive anti-Americanism in the Indian polity, why is it that US companies have won the most number of military contracts since 2005??
The premise that buying one of the US contenders would lead to the F-35 is fundamentally flawed. For one there are NO operational benefits in buying what are two different generations of fighters for the same role within a gap of 10 years or so; the only people who gain from it are the vendors and the wise men lobbying for them (which is why you see all those articles). If I am not mistaken, no nation which has committed to the JSF has made any major purchases since 2001 other than repeat orders for the F-16 by Israel and Turkey and Australia’s purchase of Super Hornets to replace the F-111.
There is still scope for India to get the F-35 if the partnership with Russia on the T-50 fizzles out; the F-35C is also being considered for the Indian navy’s carrier requirement. But then there is the not so small issue over performance, cost and delivery concerns associated with the F-35 itself.
People don’t seem to be interested on how ‘evolving’ threat perceptions affected the IAF’s planning.
This project initially started as a plan to buy 126 Mirage-20005 jets from France in 2001. The government decided to look at other options and in 2004, RFIs were issued for the F-16, Mirage-20005, Mig-29M and Gripen; neither of the two shortlisted contenders were being looked at. Things started to change after the US government allowed Boeing to hawk the Super Hornet in 2005 which led to the gradual entry of the the two Euro-canards. Even after that, senior air officials, including one ACM claimed that aircraft like the Eurofighter were too expensive for the project.
What changed all this was the fact that the Chinese overtook India in both qualitative and quantitative modernisation of its aircraft and systems in the South. Not to mention the fact that the Pakis were getting new F-16s (which doesn’t help promote the Uncle Sam in India) as well as new JF-17 and J-10 fighters from the Chicoms. In addition to new AEW/C systems from Sweden and China. When this project first started, Pakistan had no modern BVR missile or AEW; by 2009-they had both.
To cut to the chase, threat perceptions shaped this contract as much as if not more than political benefits, technology or cost advantages. People who claim that somehow the IAF is infatuated with the two European aircraft would do well to remember that.
You have that pretty much right. What is going to bring India & US together is the younger generation. Older people are still in charge because Indians in general respect old age. Those people distrust all foreigners, and that includes Americans. The younger generation has much better acquaintance and like the American way. It is indeed in India’s interest to form close alliance with the US, and that is already happening not through government initiatives, but rather with industry and commerce.
It doesn’t seem so short-sighted given that the Pakis have the same aircraft — not good. Plus also the tech offered is bigger and the indians can put on Israeli tech