Pawlenty and Santorum are in the same group as Perry.
No one has heard of them before. Now is not the time to get famous enough to win this year.
Perry, Pawlenty, Santorum, they can all run, and through running, will make themselves more well known for later on, 2016 or later. Perry, by running now, can make himself into a Romney of 2016 or later.
Gingrich did Contract With America in 1994. Everyone knows Gingrich. And Contract With America was certainly seen by Republicans at the time as a very good thing. That’s Gingrich’s case.
“Who is going to win” is much easier to figure out when you understand that the Republican winner is the one who is most able to persuade the most people that he (or probably she) is the “top” Republican. And top doesn’t mean “best”. Top means most famous, as a Republican. Who would be seen as the “leader of the Republican Party”? One year is not enough to go from being not famous enough to being “top”.
And it ain’t Perry, or Pawlenty or Santorum. It could be Gingrich or Romney or even Paul. Most likely Palin.
No, but one week is enough to go from yesterday's news to "out of the race for all practical purposes," which is where Gingrich is.
Anyway, I disagree. GWB was not well known outside Texas before his first race, and he was also not popular with conservatives before he became President.