The even minimal improvements that were made in public health and sanitation had the effect of lowering infant mortality rates, which may have caused a lower-class population explosion. The lower classes became so numerous that the economies of these places could not expand fast enough to feed, house, educate, and employ them, much less provide them the western style welfare services that all thought came with "modernization."
Huge, poverty-stricken populations became the breeding ground of radical Islam. Even fabulously wealthy countries like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia cannot really keep up with population growth and pay the lower classes enough welfare money to remain calm. The more money the Muslim lower classes do get, the more cousin-wives they take, and the more children they have. I worked in the ME with locals who had upwards of 30 children! KSA went from 5 million people in 1960 to 25 million people in 1990! All the men do is go the mosque to listen to fire-breathing imams, and father more children. If one has 35 children, selling one of them to become a suicide bomber for $50,000, just might strike one as a good deal, especially if one's imam, with whom one spends most of every day, says so.
The test case is Turkey. They are at the crossroads. They have a fair chance of becoming a real country ... or relapsing into just another flyblown Islamic terror hellhole. Could go either way.
Continuous domestic political change/instability & foreign interference were important factors too. The other hindering factor was Islam & Islamic beliefs of religious leaders.
Post Anglo-Afghan War, under Monarchy from 1919 until 1973, Afghanistan had some stability. Most reforms & modernization efforts were introduced by various Monarchs during that period. Namely, elementary education was made compulsory, Moslem veil for women was abolished, co-educational schools were set up, both the US & USSR competed for influence in Afghanistan which resulted in building highways, and vital infrastructure there.. But, these reforms actually alienated tribal & religious leaders, who were vehemently anti-modernization. So, they started a rebellion. The leader of the rebels (Habibullah Kalakani) was killed, and the next King (Nadir Shah) decided to slow down the modernization process.
Matters got more complicated when Zahir Shah (1933-1973), last King of Afghanistan, was overthrown in a coup, in 1973, by his cousin and brother-in-law (Mohammad Doud Khan), who had been Prime Minister since 1953 under Zahir Shah’s reign. Doud, then, became President of Afghanistan. Between 73-78, Doud tried to implement economic reforms, but was undermined & eventually killed by members of PDPA (People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan) – a Communist party, a faction of which was called “Parcham”, which had pro- Soviet sympathies. PDPA started the “Saur Revolution” in 1978. Subsequently, the USSR, to bolster “Parcham” faction of PDPA, invaded Afghanistan in Dec. 1979 .
The US, as part of the Cold War strategy, then decided to fund, train & arm various Islamic groups (aka Mujahedin), mostly via Pakistan’s ISI, to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia was the other key contributor as least in funding the Mujahedin. 10 yrs of Soviet occupation saw about 2 million civilians dead, and approx. 5-6 million refugees fleeing to Pakistan, Iran, and some to western countries. The Soviets withdrew in 1989 (the US & the Mujahedin saw it as an initial ideological victory – for the latter it was the Islamic ideology that won). Though, the Soviet proxy President Mohammad Najibullah stayed in power until he was overthrown in 1992, due to Civil War. The Islamic State of Afghanistan was established thereafter & Civil War between various Islamic grps continued. Ahmad Shah Massoud (aka leader of Northern Alliance) was in charge.
The Taliban, supported by Pakistan & indirectly by S. Arabia, started to bomb parts of Afghanistan, particularly Kabul in 1995 & managed to finally take over in Kabul in 1996. Many assume that the Taliban is a native product of Afghanistan. It is not. It is a product of Pakistan & their Islamic ideology is or was also backed by the Saudis. Although, the Taliban mostly consists of Pashtun tribes, it is an Islamic Movement. Those Afghans who support the Taliban or are part of the Movement, were originally taught “Taliban ideology”, in mosques & religious schools, when they sought refuge in Pakistan during Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Of course, we all know the events since 2001 in Afghanistan. But, given the above history, I am not sure if we can kill an Ideology only with guns & military. Especially, when the source of that ideology originated from outside Afghanistan & is still fed by those outside the country. Even as persons belonging to the Taliban operate inside Afghanistan.
In my view, Turkey is a different ball game. Though I agree that given the strong Islamic leanings of the ruling AKP gov't, it can go either way.