Such a candidate should be able to, but I don't think he "must" be able to deliver his home state. If a conservative candidate from a liberal state is intelligent and dynamic enough to woo the voters from a majority of the dozen or so "purple" states, it's entirely conceivable that he could win the election despite losing in his home state. I don't think that Pawlenty is charismatic enough to pull off such a feat, but I certainly think that it is not impossible. For example, Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin has angered enough union members that he is seen as a pro-growth candidate in most of the country, although his tough stance (and fraud in Milwaukee) could cost him his home state.
Sure, it’s conceivable. But it hasn’t happened in 100 years or so. The last person to go from a state office and WIN while losing the state he held office in is Woodrow Wilson. Before that, it was Abe Lincoln in 1860.
Do those sound like good odds to you? :)
If a candidate can’t win his home state, he’s a loser almost all the time. That’s aside from any and all policy differences I might have with him/her.
If only these guys had the dynamic personality of James K. Polk, we wouldn’t have to worry...
Had Al Gore won his home state (TN) in 2000, he’d have been President.