NY Times Political Calculus: NH Debate Swings Door Open for Perry, Closed for Palin

New York Times ^ | 06/14/2011 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

Most people have better things to do than to watch a presidential debate eight months in advance of the Iowa caucuses. So when considering a debate like the one that took place among Republican candidates in New Hampshire tonight, it’s important to be mindful of the following:

First, the debate serves mostly to influence elite opinion — including partisan strategists, the news media, local party leaders, major donors and bundlers and the candidates and their staffs. Much less so ordinary voters, who are not yet tuning in.

Second, only a couple of themes are liable to be remembered days (let alone weeks or months) later. The subtle distinctions that a candidate draws on the differences between their Medicare plan and Representative Paul Ryan’s — that stuff will be forgotten about. Instead, it’s the “artistic impression” of the candidates that matters — as well as any actual, breaking news.

The candidate to break news in this debate was Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who announced that she was running for president. And then she performed strongly throughout, exuding confidence, and turning her service in the House of Representatives from a potential liability (in a field that also includes governors and senators) into a strength (by emphasizing her active role in formulating policy on the major issues of the day).

The comparison between Ms. Bachmann and Sarah Palin is perhaps made too easily. But as I remarked on Twitter during the debate, if there is a constituency of voters trying to decide between the two, Ms. Bachmann has a lot to offer. She’s considerably sharper on her feet than Ms. Palin, and has more discipline.

[GoCards]

Im not sold on Bachmann. Theres something a little “politicky” about her. Im not saying no just she hasnt sold me like Palin has.

[Obadiah]

Pffft... NYT = DNC = Marxism

I ain’t buyin’ whatever the NYTimes is trying to sell.

[ClearCase_guy]

They are desperately hoping that Sarah does not enter. You can smell the fear.

[misharu]

She’s considerably sharper on her feet than Ms. Palin, and has more discipline.

Oooootay, Buckwheat! Whatever you say! *snort*

[Gator113]

I won’t be voting for Bachmann/Rollins,

I’ll be voting for Palin, period. I don’t give a flip what NYT has to say about ANYTHING.

[bcsco]

When the NYT times paints a rosy picture of a GOP candidate, you can bet they’re really going after the one they’re comparing her to...

[Durus]

The NYT likes Bachmann and doesn’t like Palin. What should a conservative derive from this?

[TribalPrincess2U]

Me either.

I like what Perry has done for Texas so far but president, not sure.

Esp when the enemy thinks he’s a good pick.

[Spok]

Nothing the NYT says about Palin can taken seriously.

[suijuris]

Theres something a little “politicky” about her.

You mean like her non-anouncement that she would soon announce that she is running for President. Pretty amateurish and hokey IMO.

Palin plays hardball. Michelle is coming off as a bit of a lightweight.

[central_va]

They are desperately hoping that Sarah does not enter. You can smell the fear.

The smeardia™ has done their best to smear and slander her to the opposite affect. She is been inoculated and her persona has reached mythical proportions. It's HERS if she wants it. Lucky for "them" it looks like she doesn't want the job.

[Sir Napsalot]

What’s up with both lib rags (like NYT’s little guy Nate) and GOP old establishment (NO, Rich Lowry) propping up Michele Bachmann as the true conservative voice?

Since when both sides are locked step together like this?

This does make you go Hummmmmm.....

[Tallguy]

She’s considerably sharper on her feet than Ms. Palin, and has more discipline.

I think that this may be true, but also irrelevant. We're not picking the host of Saturday Night Live, we're picking the next president of the United States. Often it's "gut feel" about what is right, conservatively-speaking, that is more important. We already have Mr. Glib in the WH and it isn't working out so well.

[TribalPrincess2U]

Esp when the enemy thinks he’s a good pick.

Then again it might be reverse psychology.

[truthfreedom]

The NYT doesn’t like Palin. They don’t like Bachmann either, but Palin is the more immediate threat to Romney, or whatever establishment RINO (now Perry) they find acceptable.

[Jim Scott]

When the New York Times makes positive noises about a conservative Republican, red flags fly. I generally like Michele Bachmann but would chose Sarah Palin in a heartbeat were the two on the same ballot. I fear that Bachmann and, perhaps, Perry, is going to be used by the leftmedia as a means to roadblock a Palin candidacy. Once that is accomplished, they'll get the same kind of smears the left always uses on Republicans. Fortunately, I believe that Sarah Palin will run and if she does, the leftist media applecart will be overturned. The impact of a Palin candidacy on fundraising and sheer attention will be so graet that other conservative candidates, willingly or grudgingly, will withdraw and throw their support to Palin...and the left will go nuts. There will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth - and I don't mean metaphorically. Frankly, I can't wait.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: I’ll be voting for Palin, period

IF she runs.

[Art in Idaho]

Wouldn't their heads just explode if on the last night of the Republican Convention it's:

[ex-snook]

Romney is his own biggest threat. He comes across as a phoney baloney plastic banana.