Just so we're all clear, and I don't have time today to go into detail, let me say that I concur with LaybackLenny's sentiments, in that the only reason Sarah would decide not to run is that she would determine she couldn't possibly win the general, and being the patriot she is, she would come forward to tell us precisely that 2012 is too important to lose to Obama and she would then throw her support to X and ask us to do the same. Of course, I believe that this scenario is a 1%-er at the most, given that there is no X *at this time* who even comes close to Sarah Palin and I can't see anyone else either, can you?
in that the only reason Sarah would decide not to run is that she would determine she couldn’t possibly win the general, and being the patriot she is, she would come forward to tell us precisely that 2012 is too important to lose to Obama and she would then throw her support to X and ask us to do the same.”
You know, her actions to date would also be consistent with that outcome, and that outcome would also be consistent with her character...and a gesture like that would be truly statesmanlike. You could see Reagan doing something exactly like that (and, in a sense, that is sort of what he did in 76 by trying to help Ford so much after narrowly losing the nomination to him. The day after the convention, some asked him to go indy, and he refused).
So, there are a few ways this could play out, and they are all good, so long as they contribute to the overriding issue of ousting Obama.
Could someone else beat Obama? Yes, I think Perry could. Is Perry as conservative as Palin. No. But could Palin rationally conclude that Perry is the candidate who is the most conservative candidate who could defeat Obama? Yes, she could rationally conclude that.
What I don’t think we will see is that she is going to just simply walk away after doing so much, including appearing in NH and Iowa, and just pretend like it “was no big deal” that she did all that (see my dating but no marriage analogy) and she was never running anyway.
I do not see anyone getting into the race who she would consider supporting, except for Perry (who she endorsed against Hutchison).